NWS model projections are off base. Crests will be lower and sooner than projected. RFC model scenarios favored historical years with later in the season thaws ( La Nina years).
Compared to 1997, this year has less water in the snow, less frost in the ground, less ice on the river and an earlier thaw already on the way. 1997 had 1-3 inches of rain with the snowmelt. This year's soil moisture doesn't make-up the deficit from the other factors. 38 feet for a crest at Fargo is way too high.