I would like to express my best new year wishes to all of you. Healt
success and many many clear skies for 2003.
Latest CMC news...
The biggest news at CMC is the multi-million dollar contract we gave
to IBM to replace the existing NEC super computers. We should receive
all the new computers this spring.
The other big news, we still experience problems with the new 15km reg
model. Major changes have been done in the last month to improve
surface temperature and cloud forecasts which were just horrible.
In the synoptic scale, well the 15km is a big improvement as opposed
to the actual operational 24km model. We gain easely 12hrs in
accuracy. In other words the accuracy of 24hr (15km) prog is as good
as the operational (24km) 36hr prog. In fact I saw the difference on
daily uses of this new model before I saw December scores.
I am working in concert with development section to improve the cloud
forecast of the new model. More than 100 experiments were done in the
last month to improve the low cloud forecasts. Actually it looks quite
promissing. I have seen some cases where the new 15km beats the 24km.
There is room for improvement in the rockies though.
Actually, I briefed development section regarding the cirrus clouds.
The new 15km tends to increase with high level moisture with time
ending up with high level clouds over most of the contient by 48hrs...
not too usefull for our needs. I can filter these clouds, but I loose
informations in some weather situations. I prefer to change the
algorithm of high clouds than filtering. More experiments should de
done this month. There are also problems with precipitation types but
this is not an issue of this list.
The deadline to correct all the problems is the end of February. If we
can't solved them... well all the building will have to work on the
IBM code conversions for 4 months and the new 15km will remain on hold
until next summer or fall. This means, I will also be on hold with the
24km to produce the astro-weather images until it will be released.
These was the latest news...
Happy new years