Well, I'd love to see Detroit make it interesting. Both teams are
+3.2 victory margin in the past two rounds of the playoffs, so I
suppose it's plausible it could last longer than the pundits expect
(though LA faced better comp).
For an 8.5-pt spread you'd have to assume L.A. was 4.5 points better
on a neutral court. Like, say, the difference between Dallas against
Milwaukee. Wow. You're right, that seems high, especially given how
Detroit finished the year.
--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
> --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
> <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
> > I think Lakers in five. One thing that sticks out to me is that
> > matchups for Detroit are absolutely terrible. They can't put Ben
> > Wallace on Shaq or he'll foul out in 20 minutes, and they can't
> > Rip on Kobe without giving up 30 a night. Detroit's bench is far
> > better, but that matters less in the playoffs than it did during
> > season. I suppose if Prince can cover Kobe and Billups blows up
> > could go six or seven, but I doubt it.
> Tayshaun has to cover Kobe. There will be a rotation on him, but
> Tayshaun makes sense as a stopper. Having Rip on him isn't horrible
> either. Rip, for all that people, uh, rip on him, works fine in
> defense. He knows what he is supposed to do, where to force guys.
> His lateral quickness is good enough. Besides, forcing Kobe to the
> interior is what you want these days. You can strip him of the ball
> as Minnesota did only a fair amount. He doesn't protect the ball as
> well as he should. Detroit's big men especially have quick hands.
> want to see him make one of those incredibly difficult reverse flips
> because, yes, they're still difficult for him.
> I honestly don't know what Larry Brown is going to do to increase
> odds, but I know that if he works the officials the right way or
> not the wrong way, if he gives up none of the easy stuff to LA off
> turnovers, which is very doable (please Rasheed, don't lose your
> focus), he can win this series in 5 before going back to LA. The
> defense is that good -- a couple numbers are pretty ridiculous,
> suggesting that it is practically impossible to hurt them on the
> offensive glass, something I've never seen (and don't quite
> And the Lakers are very beatable this year with Shaq definitely
> a bit from years past (for FTs and other reasons). Looking at even
> the Lakers' nice playoff performance, I see holes left and right
> can be taken advantage of. Larry (a fellow UNC guy, I like to point
> out at times like this) is a good enough coach to see most of those
> holes, I think, and, more importantly, to convince his guys that
> can win by playing to those weaknesses. Maybe it's just Roboscout
> making me see so many things you can do to make up a few points --
> is my first full year of using it -- but I now get so frustrated
> I see teams doing the wrong things at times of the game (Minnesota
> completely choked in the 3rd quarter against the Lakers in Game 6,
> even though they outscored them and took the lead then. They went
> away from a dominant strategy, charging the lane, to doing what they
> were comfortable with, jumpers. They could have fouled out Shaq and
> maybe Karl/Kobe so that the 4th would have been a lot easier, but
> stopped attacking the basket. And it's not that the Lakers took it
> away. But Flip didn't push it. That was 2-4 points right there
> if KG picks up another foul. How much $$$ did that cost them, too,
> with one appearance in the Finals raking in dough for teams for 20
> years into the future?)
> The 8.5 pt spread is ridiculous. No way the Lakers are that much
> better. I don't know any of this Vegas stuff, but that was a very
> interesting opening line. (I guess it's come down to 8.)
> Dean Oliver
> Author, Basketball on Paper
> When basketball teams start playing Moneyball, this is the book
> they'll use!
> > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Daniel Dickey"
> > <danthestatman@h...> wrote:
> > > >From: "Mike G" <msg_53@h...>
> > > >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
> > > >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
> > > >Subject: [APBR_analysis] Detroit vs. LA
> > > >Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 13:44:44 -0000
> > >
> > > >In any case, the Pistons should not be considered patsies.
> > > >don't have injuries that I'm aware of. They don't have holes
> > > >offense or defense. And these numbers suggest they should be
> > > >favorites.
> > >
> > > I am one of the few "crazy" people predicting a Detroit victory
> > the
> > > championship series. I have this feeling that Chauncey Billups
> > will
> > > actually start playing well - which would help their offense
> > immensly.
> > >
> > > I also have this feeling that the Lakers feel they've already
> > >
> > > I also could easily be wrong - which I've been told by every
> > person
> > > I've told this to.
> > >
> > >
> > > Check out the coupons and bargains on MSN Offers!
> > http://youroffers.msn.com