>From: "Michael Tamada" <tamada@...>
>Subject: RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Let's discuss scouting (How would you do a
>better job?) (long)
>Date: Wed, 2 Jun 2004 13:14:31 -0700
> Another possibility would be to split players by quality of team, although
>it could very well be that players from high-powered college teams might
>have *worse* predictability, because their teams and teammates might simply
>be overpowering weak college opponents, giving them stats that they won't
>be able to replicate in the pros (Laettner, Hurley).
Actually, I don't think anyone expects players to replicate their college
stats. Laettner was a very good player statistically in college, but not
phenominal (like David Robinson or Duncan or Shaq, etc). Laettner has been
a solid pro. Hurley's stats were solid in college (mainly his assists and
three point shooting) - but his lower scoring average and ok defensive
statistics didn't foretell a great pro future. I predicted him personally
to be a major bust.
Of the Duke stars - I fully expected Grant Hill, Brand, and Shane Battier
(in a Ron Artest sort of way) to be NBA stars. I expected Ferry could be a
good NBA scorer (maybe like Tom Chambers statistically) - he disappointed
obviously. I expected Laettner to be good NBA PF, but not a star - he as
disappointed a little. And of course - I thought Boozer was just as good at
what he does as Dunleavy and J. Williams were at their strengths.
One thing that cracks me up about very good white, tall, college shooters
(talking about Duke made me think of this) is that they are always compared
by someone to Larry Bird. Anyone that knew anything knew that Ferry,
Laettner, Van Horn, Croshere, etc - NONE of them could be Bird. One reason
- although all solid shooters in their own way - none could be the high
volume scorer Bird was capable of. The other BIGGEST reason is that they
couldn't PASS like Bird, and didn't ave his court awareness. They couldn't
create opportunities for their teamates - and thus create even more
opportunities for themselves (by keeping the defense honest).
The only guy in college above 6'8" that had the court awareness of Bird and
Magic that I can think of is Luke Walton. He may not be their level - but
he's close. However, his game has MANY glaring weaknesses that theirs
Back to the subject - I think rebounding prowess could be predicted a bit.
I'd use percentage of rebounds compared to opponents totals in college -
then use a strength of schedule multiplier. (I have using Sagarin's, (team's
SoS/80)^2). From this you could rank all the college players - and I bet it
will give very good insight on well they'll rebound at the NBA level
Does ANYONE know where I can find past team totals (and opponent totals) -
so I can do some real statistical comparisons? If I had that and past
strength of schedules - I could attempt a similarity scores between players
and their college careers. I think that could be a good predictor.
I can promise you - after making adjustments for pace and schedule strength
- the similar past college players of Dwayne Wade would foretell a future
star, for example.
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