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• ## Re: WNBA turnaround: a mathematical approach

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• Forgot to finish the formula on Win% calculations... ... is ... Win%A_B = [Win%A*(1-Win%B)]/[Win%A*(1-Win%B)+(1-Win%A)*Win%B]
Message 1 of 11 , Aug 17, 2001
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Forgot to finish the formula on Win% calculations...

>
> > > First, a 65-17 team vs. a 17-65 team should win about 94% of the
> time,
> > > so good guess.
> > >
> > > Second, in baseball, a 104-58 team vs. a 58-104 team should win
> > > 76% of the time, so about 3/4, not 2/3.
> > >
> >
> > Where are you getting these numbers? Either way, the difference
is
>
> Bill James:
>
> Win% Team A vs. Team B
>

Win%A_B = [Win%A*(1-Win%B)]/[Win%A*(1-Win%B)+(1-Win%A)*Win%B]

http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/methdesc.html#matchup

has the detailed info.
• ... From: Charles Steinhardt [mailto:charles@princeton.edu] 2) There is no equivalent of the free throw in baseball, and in fact all new stadia are forced to
Message 1 of 11 , Aug 17, 2001
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-----Original Message-----
From: Charles Steinhardt [mailto:charles@...]

2) There is no equivalent of the free throw in baseball, and in fact all
new stadia are forced to put some sort of blue/black screen in
straightaway center so that the batter has a good line of sight.  Fans can
have a very direct impact in basketball that I'd guess is worth as much as
5 points per game (some in increasing the home FT%, some in decreasing
that of opponents.  Maybe somebody has statistics on this?

[Dean LaVergne] It doesn't seem to hold out.  For the last ten years:

Free Throw Percentage:

Season   Away    Home    Diff
1992    75.62%  76.12%   0.51%
1993    75.19%  75.65%   0.46%
1994    73.60%  73.25%  -0.35%
1995    73.49%  73.84%   0.34%
1996    73.91%  74.03%   0.12%
1997    73.98%  73.67%  -0.31%
1998    73.54%  73.82%   0.28%
1999    72.29%  73.32%   1.02%
2000    74.55%  75.44%   0.89%
2001    74.48%  74.99%   0.51%

However, free throws attempted seem a little more significant:

Season   Away    Home    Diff    % Diff
1992   28,522  30,553   2,031    7.12%
1993   29,715  31,659   1,944    6.54%
1994   28,688  30,131   1,443    5.03%
1995   29,248  30,690   1,442    4.93%
1996   30,587  32,178   1,591    5.20%
1997   29,522  30,272     750    2.54%
1998   30,704  31,799   1,095    3.57%
1999   18,399  19,000     601    3.27%
2000   29,410  30,352     942    3.20%
2001   28,570  29,308     738    2.58%

Dean L

• Very interesting (and obviously not what I d expect looking from the point of view of a fan). Anybody know why the FT disparity has dropped (and how strongly
Message 1 of 11 , Aug 17, 2001
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Very interesting (and obviously not what I'd expect looking from the point
of view of a fan).

Anybody know why the FT disparity has dropped (and how strongly that
disparity correlates with winning %)? Have there been new instructions to
officials?

On Fri, 17 Aug 2001, Dean LaVergne wrote:

>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Charles Steinhardt [mailto:charles@...]
>
>
>
>
> 2) There is no equivalent of the free throw in baseball, and in fact all
> new stadia are forced to put some sort of blue/black screen in
> straightaway center so that the batter has a good line of sight. Fans can
> have a very direct impact in basketball that I'd guess is worth as much as
> 5 points per game (some in increasing the home FT%, some in decreasing
> that of opponents. Maybe somebody has statistics on this?
>
>
> [Dean LaVergne] It doesn't seem to hold out. For the last ten years:
>
> Free Throw Percentage:
>
> Season Away Home Diff
> 1992 75.62% 76.12% 0.51%
> 1993 75.19% 75.65% 0.46%
> 1994 73.60% 73.25% -0.35%
> 1995 73.49% 73.84% 0.34%
> 1996 73.91% 74.03% 0.12%
> 1997 73.98% 73.67% -0.31%
> 1998 73.54% 73.82% 0.28%
> 1999 72.29% 73.32% 1.02%
> 2000 74.55% 75.44% 0.89%
> 2001 74.48% 74.99% 0.51%
>
>
> However, free throws attempted seem a little more significant:
>
>
> Season Away Home Diff % Diff
> 1992 28,522 30,553 2,031 7.12%
> 1993 29,715 31,659 1,944 6.54%
> 1994 28,688 30,131 1,443 5.03%
> 1995 29,248 30,690 1,442 4.93%
> 1996 30,587 32,178 1,591 5.20%
> 1997 29,522 30,272 750 2.54%
> 1998 30,704 31,799 1,095 3.57%
> 1999 18,399 19,000 601 3.27%
> 2000 29,410 30,352 942 3.20%
> 2001 28,570 29,308 738 2.58%
>
>
> Dean L
>
>
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