Browse Groups

• ## RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dilution, balance, and Bob-bashing

(35)
• NextPrevious
• ... From: Dean Oliver [mailto:deano@rawbw.com] Sent: Tuesday, December 31, 2002 3:00 PM To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com Subject:
Message 1 of 35 , Jan 2, 2003
View Source
-----Original Message-----
From: Dean Oliver <deano@...> [mailto:deano@...]
Sent: Tuesday, December 31, 2002 3:00 PM
To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Dilution, balance, and Bob-bashing

--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, bchaikin@a... wrote:
> now we're talking - something that is quantifiable - game pace.
what should
> the pace of a game be between two teams, and not even cross-
generational, or
> even between seasons, but just between two teams in the same
season? i've
> modelled it, and with accuracy. but before i explain how it works -
and it
> ain't difficult - i'd like to hear how others would do it...

The standard approach is the Stratomatic approach -- If Team A
averages 4 possessions over the league average and Team B averages 2
possessions over the league average, then Team A vs Team B will on
average be 6 possessions over the league average. This is roughly
comparable (on a first order differential basis) to the Adams-James
rule for evaluating how well a 0.300 hitter will do against a pitcher
who allows opponents to hit 0.300 in a league that averages 0.260.

Mechanistically, I've never been sure that this is right. I'd be
curious if data exists to support this or whatever Bob says. I guess
I have the data, but never looked at it that way.

***
That's along the lines of how I'd do it, although probably I'd use
ratios instead of differences (5% more possessions, e.g. rather than
4 possesions). However Harlanzo's point about possible asymmetries
is a valid one: slow down teams might be able to slow down their
opponents more successfully than running teams can speed up their
opponents. There's also the general slowdown that we see in the
playoffs -- does this carry over into the regular season? When top
teams meet, do they tend to play at a slower pace? There's the strategic
aspect also; most coaches instinctively realize that inferior teams
want a slower-paced game while superior teams want a fast-paced game.
is not necessarily just "fast meets slow and the outcome is somewhere
in between". The Bill James formula works great for zero-sum game
situations, such as when the batter wants to hit the ball and the
pitcher wants to stop him. Or when one basketball team wants to
score and the other team wants to stop them. I don't know if it'd work
as well in the case of something like game pace, which is not something
that the two teams will necessarily be contesting as heavily, or care

--MKT
• ... watched ... Put me firmly in the pompous windbag camp. The best thing about the Mason comment, for instance, was that Rosen said the reason Mason can t
Message 35 of 35 , Jan 11, 2003
View Source
> I particularly enjoyed Rosen's article on the Sonics where he
watched
> one game (one of the worst of the year, for what it's worth) and
> acted like he knew something about the team. Apparently, Desmond
> Mason can't make a jumper because he had one bad night.

Put me firmly in the "pompous windbag" camp. The best thing about the
Mason comment, for instance, was that Rosen said the reason Mason
can't make a jumper was his "low release point", which was hilarious
on several levels:

1) Apparently he's never watched Steve Kerr. Or Andrew Toney. Or
Bryce Drew. Or about a hundred other guys who shoot from under their
chin but make everything.

2) Mason's release point isn't low, especially given that he's about
20 feet off the ground when he shoots it.

3) Mason's problem isn't the release point, it's the lack of arc on
his shot.
Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.
• Changes have not been saved
Press OK to abandon changes or Cancel to continue editing
• Your browser is not supported
Kindly note that Groups does not support 7.0 or earlier versions of Internet Explorer. We recommend upgrading to the latest Internet Explorer, Google Chrome, or Firefox. If you are using IE 9 or later, make sure you turn off Compatibility View.