----- Forwarded message from "Paul D. Fernhout"
<pdfernhout@...> -----

> From:
> "The Nation: Our Jobless Recovery"
> http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090713/hindery_gerard

And on this theme from Mike Whitney:
http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney07032009.html
"""
The surging stock market has made it harder to see that the economy is
resetting at a lower rate of economic activity. Deflation is setting in
across all sectors. Housing prices are leading the retreat, falling 18.1

percent year-over-year according to the new Case-Schiller report.
Vanishing
home equity is forcing households to slash spending which is weakening
demand and triggering more layoffs. It's a vicious circle which ends in
slower growth. ...

The toxic assets problem is further compounded by an
estimated $2 trillion of additional losses from defaulting residential
mortgages, commercial real-estate loans, credit card loans, and auto
loans.
It's is the double-whammy; a fetid portfolio of non-performing loans and

garbage mortgage-backed derivatives. At the same time, personal
consumption
has dropped off a cliff and the signs of economic contraction are
visible
everywhere, from bulging homeless shelters, to long lines at the
unemployment offices, empty state coffers, half-filled shopping carts
at
the grocery store. Unemployment is rising at 600,000 per month, consumer

confidence is at record lows, retail sales have fallen sharply, and
housing
continues its plunge. The data are clear; there are no green shoots or
silver linings. ...

Consumer spending is 70 per cent of GDP, but consumers
have suddenly stepped on the brakes. This is a real game-changer. Even
if
the credit markets are restored and the banks show a greater willingness
to
lend, there will be no return to the pre-crisis consumption-levels of
the
past; those days are over. The administration will have to provide more
fiscal stimulus, jobs programs, state aid, and other forms of public
relief
to compensate for overcapacity and falling demand. Household balance
sheets
are so stretched that more disposable income will have to be devoted to
paying down debt and increasing savings. Past consumption trends cannot
be
trusted to predict the future. It's a whole new ballgame. Household
wealth
has slipped $14 trillion since the crisis began. This includes sizable
losses in real estate, investments and retirement funds. Home equity has

dropped to 41 per cent (a new low) and joblessness is on the rise.


When credit was easy, borrowing increased, assets prices rose and the
economy
grew. Now the process has shifted into reverse. Credit has dried up,
collateral values have plunged, GDP is negative, and consumers are
buried
under a mountain of debt. Personal bankruptcies, defaults and
foreclosures
are all up. It will take years, perhaps a decade or more, to rebuild
household balance sheets and restore the flagging economy. The consumer
is
running on empty and the chances of a robust recovery are nil.

"""

Japan's economy is still messed up after their meltdown starting in
1992:
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1848975,00.html?xid=fee
d-cnn-topics

So, is the USA essentially going into any technological singularity in
the
next twenty years (or whatever) in a financial slump?

Or is what we are seeing now, dropping demand, rising productivity,
essentially *already* a technological singularity? And our social
institutions can not or will not acknowledge the structural change?

What if the world had a technological singularity and nobody noticed?
:-)

Reminds me of that scary slashdot signature I read years ago --
something
like, the year food replicators get invented, half the world will starve
for
economic reasons. That's the kind of thing that might happen if people
are
in denial or unaware of or actively resisting post-scarcity issues.

Nathan linked to this video on the abundance list in another context:
http://bilconference.com/videos/your-religion-is-false-joel-grus/
but while parts of it are funny and all too true, I found just
dismissing
concerns about nanotech or singularities in with everything else as
unfortunate.

I'd suggest a US social and economic policy not considering
post-scarcity
issues is the main reason this financial crisis may go on, and on, and
on.
It's kind of like sailing a ship made of ice from the Antarctic to the
equator, all the time saying, it's bound to get cold again. :-)

--Paul Fernhout
http://www.pdfernhout.net/