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http://www.news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=1223502002
Sharon eyes 'Samson option' against Iraq
ROSS DUNN IN JERUSALEM
IN BIBLICAL times, the Israelites relied on God to triumph over their
enemies. These days the Israeli government puts its faith in the godlike
power of its formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons to annihilate its
foes.
The alarming prospect of Israel unleashing its weapons of mass
destruction
is high on the list of concerns of strategic planners and analysts as
the
United States prepares to attack Iraq as part of its æWar on TerrorÆ.
According to experts, a retaliatory nuclear strike against Baghdad in
the
event of a chemical or biological weapons attack against Israel has
never
been more likely - particularly with Ariel Sharon in power.
Saddam Hussein has good cause to think twice about going a step further
than
he did during the Gulf War in 1991, when 39 conventionally-armed Scud
missiles were fired against Israel. If he uses biological or chemical
weapons, the consequence could be that he and his country would be
obliterated.
Sharon - who is courting extreme right-wingers to prop up his teetering
government following the withdrawal of the Labour Party last week - has
spoken openly of his willingness to strike back, and strike back hard,
should his country be attacked by Iraq.
The Israeli military has already said anti-radiation pills will be
distributed as part of its civil defence preparations. And SharonÆs
latest
appointment, General Shaul Mofaz, the new defence minister, is well
known
for his hawkish views and the harsh tactics he has used to suppress the
Palestinian uprising.
"Israel is not interested in being involved in the campaign against
Iraq,"
said Sharon.
He added: "If our citizens are attacked seriously - by a weapon of mass
destruction, chemical, biological or by some mega-terror attack act -
and
suffer casualties, then Israel will respond."
The commander of the Israeli air force, Major General Dan Halutz, has
made
similarly ominous noises: "You canÆt take what happened then in 1991 and
think that it will also happen this time, neither in the way the war
will be
conducted... nor in the manner of IsraelÆs reaction."
Many believe Sharon would be prepared to use his deadly arsenal. As
IsraelÆs
most respected military affairs commentator, ZeÆev Schiff, put it: "If
Iraq
strikes at Israel with non-conventional warheads, causing massive
casualties
among the civil population, Israel could respond with a nuclear
retaliation
that would eradicate Iraq as a country."
The possibility of Israel using its secret arsenal against Iraq was
raised
during the Gulf War by the then US defence secretary, Dick Cheney, who
is
now vice-president.
"This assessment has only been strengthened since then because,
according to
all the signs, Iraq now has biological weapons that could cause mass
casualties," said Schiff.
During the conflict in 1991 the US struck a deal with IsraelÆs then
prime
minister, Yitzhak Shamir, not to retaliate, arguing that to do so would
shatter the Arab coalition. But ShamirÆs restraint was not met with
universal support. One of the leading dissenters was Sharon, who claimed
Israel was abandoning responsibility for defending its citizens.
The prospect of nuclear retaliation by Israel was also highlighted in
1991
by the Pulitzer-award winning American journalist Seymour Hersh in his
seminal work The Samson Option.
Hersh warned: "Should any Arab nation fire missiles again at Israelà a
nuclear escalation, once unthinkable except as a [last] resort, would
now be
a strong possibility."
He added that "the size and sophistication of IsraelÆs arsenal allow men
such as Ariel Sharon to dream of redrawing the map of the Middle East,
aided
by the implicit threat of nuclear force".
Earlier this year, Professor Anthony Cordesman, a fellow at the Centre
for
Strategic Affairs, raised the same horrifying scenario in his
presentation
to the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, stating: "Israel has also
concluded that the credibility of its deterrent would be undermined if
it
rode out another series of such attacks, as it did during the Gulf War."
Officially, Israel does not admit that it has nuclear weapons. Since
1965 it
has "refused to confirm or deny" claims that it possesses a nuclear
arsenal
. It has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, saying it
cannot rely on international safeguards when it is in a permanent state
of
war with much of the Arab world.
In 1999 the US Department of Energy placed Israel sixth on its list of
nations possessing nuclear weapons. The document claims Israel has
300kg to
500kg of weapons-grade plutonium, enough to produce at least 250 nuclear
warheads.
SharonÆs blunt admission that a retaliatory strike would be ordered in
the
event of an attack on Israel with non-conventional weapons came after
discussions with US President George W Bush.
Israeli officials later interpreted the presidentÆs stance as giving the
green-light to Sharon to attack Baghdad only if Iraq launched a
pre-emptive
strike against the Jewish State before an American military campaign
had got
underway.
The officials said if an American military offensive had already begun,
then
Israel should show restraint and allow the US forces to retaliate.
Nuclear history
1949 Israeli Defence Force Science Corps begins surveying the Negev
desert
seeking uranium reserves.
1952 Israeli Atomic Energy Commission is created. Its chairman, Ernst
David
Bergmann, advocates an Israeli bomb to ensure "that we shall never
again be
led as lambs to the slaughter".
1953 Process for extracting the uranium found in the Negev.
1957 France agrees to provide Israel with a research reactor at Dimona.
1958 US first becomes aware of Dimona after the facility is spotted by
U-2
spy planes.
1967 Six Day War.
1968 CIA concludes Israel has started production of nuclear weapons.
1973 Egypt and Syria attack Israeli forces in Sinai and Golan Heights
on the
Jewish fast in Yom Kippur War.
1986 Mordechai Vanunu a Dimona technician, is abducted by Mossad agents
in
London and sentenced to 18 years in jail for providing information about
Dimona, including pictures, to a British newspaper.
1999 US Department of Energy document ranks Israel sixth among countries
with nuclear weapons, ahead of India and North Korea.
2000 Knesset debates IsraelÆs nuclear weapons programme for first time.