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2005 HURRICANE SEASON WILL BE STRONGER THAN PROJECTED
By Willie Drye
National Geographic News
August 8, 2005

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/08/0808_050808_hurricane.html

U.S. coastal residents already on edge because of two powerful and
unprecedented July hurricanes are getting bad news today -- the 2005
hurricane season is probably going to be worse than expected.

In May, hurricane forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado
State University predicted eight hurricanes would form this season. Of those
storms, four would be major hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 miles an
hour (178 kilometers an hour).

Thanks to this summer's storm-friendly climate conditions, however, Gray and
Klotzbach now think 10 hurricanes will form, and that six will become major
hurricanes. The CSU researchers also think there's a 77 percent probability
that a hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coast somewhere between
Texas and Maine.

An active 2005 season would follow a decade-long trend of stormy summers.
The 2004 season -- during which four powerful hurricanes struck Florida --
was the most expensive on record, costing about 45 billion dollars (U.S.) in
damages.

Klotzbach said this year's forecast was increased because conditions are
ripe for spawning hurricanes. The ocean water is very warm, and upper-level
winds that might prevent storms from forming are minimal.

"All the factors are favorable for hurricane formation," Klotzbach said.

Gray and Klotzbach's new predictions, which were released this morning, are
similar to an updated hurricane forecast issued August 2 by the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA predicts nine to eleven
hurricanes, with five to seven of them becoming major storms.

Record Numbers

As part of their hurricane forecast, Gray and Klotzbach predict that 20
tropical storms will form this season. When a storm system's strongest winds
reach 35 miles an hour (56 kilometers an hour), it is designated a tropical
storm and given a name by NOAA's National Hurricane Center.

If the storm continues to strengthen as it moves westward across the
Atlantic and its winds reach 74 miles an hour (119 kilometers an hour), it
becomes a hurricane.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, but the most active
period usually doesn't begin until mid August, and September 10 is
considered the peak. During the 2004 season, the first hurricane didn't form
until August 3, but the season's eighth named storm formed by August 29.

By contrast, powerful hurricanes have already started roaring off the
Atlantic this year, and July 2005 was one of the most unusual months on
record. Counting the two tropical storms that developed in June, a total of
seven named storms had formed by the end of July.

"So far, it's been a record-breaker," said meteorologist Stu Ostro of The
Weather Channel. "There was a depression, storm, or hurricane present in the
Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico every day from July 3 to July 29.
We've not seen anything like that in July in records going back to 1851."

The five tropical storms that developed in July also set a record, Ostro
said. Two of those storms developed into extremely powerful hurricanes.
Hurricane Dennis made landfall near Pensacola, Florida, on July 10 with
winds of about 120 miles an hour (193 kilometers an hour).

Dennis began as a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean Sea on July 3
and at one point had winds of 150 miles an hour (241 kilometers an hour).

Hurricane Emily followed almost immediately and achieved winds of 155 miles
an hour (245 kilometers and hour), making it the most powerful July
hurricane on record. The storm struck Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula with winds
exceeding 130 miles an hour (209 kilometers an hour).

Forecasters think the summer of 2005 could surpass the 1933 hurricane
season, which was the most active on record. That year, 21 tropical storms
formed, creating 10 hurricanes, 5 of which became major hurricanes.

Global Warming or Natural Cycle?

The dramatic increase in tropical storms during the past decade has sparked
a widening debate among meteorologists about whether global warming is
playing a role in hurricane formation and intensity.

Some researchers say global warming is causing more active hurricane
seasons. Others say global warming is not causing more storms to form, but
is causing them to become more powerful.

See "Is Global Warming Making Hurricanes Worse?"
http://tinyurl.com/cc69b

CSU's Gray and Klotzbach say the stormier summers are part of a
well-established cycle of fluctuating hurricane activity. The cycles are
caused by ocean currents that alter the salt content of the water, Klotzbach
said. When the salt content is higher in the Atlantic -- as it is now -- the
water is warmer, and that causes more tropical storms to form.

When the salt content is lower, the water is cooler and fewer hurricanes
form, Klotzbach said.

The cycles take 25 to 40 years to run their courses. The present cycle of
increased hurricanes started in 1995 and is expected to continue for at
least another decade, perhaps longer.

Klotzbach said that if global warming were affecting hurricane formation,
more storms would be forming around the world instead of only in the
Atlantic Basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and
the Gulf of Mexico.

"I really can't pick out a trend of increased hurricanes around the world,"
Klotzbach said. "If you look at the eastern Pacific Ocean, hurricane
activity there has gone way down since 1995. There's no trend toward more
storms there. It's a tricky problem."

The Weather Channel's Ostro agrees that a natural climate cycle is "playing
a significant role" in the recent active hurricane seasons. But other
factors also may be at work, he said.

"Global warming might also be playing a role in tropical cyclone activity
worldwide, not just in the Atlantic, especially as it relates to hurricane
activity," Ostro said.

Still, Ostro noted that determining whether global warming is influencing
hurricanes is complicated by the fact that data about hurricanes that formed
before 1970 is less reliable than more recent data.

"It's difficult to assess to what extent this climate change is exerting an
influence upon the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons," he said.

............

Willie Drye is the author of Storm of the Century: The Labor Day Hurricane
of 1935, published by National Geographic Books.

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