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CLIMATE EXPERT PREDICTS STRONGER, WETTER STORMS
By Cathy Zollo
Florida Herald Tribune
Jun 17, 2005

http://tinyurl.com/8gn8t

A pair of scientists say that warmer oceans -- the result of global warming
-- will likely lead to more damaging hurricanes in the future.

Climatologists can't yet tell if there will be more storms, but rising ocean
temperatures will likely affect hurricanes in two ways, Kevin Trenberth, a
climate expert with the National Center for Atmospheric Research reported
Thursday in the journal Science.

Warmer ocean waters will likely allow for more thunderstorms that could lead
to hurricanes in areas that typically produce them. And warmer waters also
mean that once a hurricane takes shape, it will have more fuel to grow and
will take in more moisture.

The climate shift also likely means a slightly longer hurricane season and
stronger storms early in the season.

But that doesn't mean every storm will be a monster, Trenberth said.

While sea surface temperature is probably the most important ingredient in
determining a storm's strength, other factors come into play.

One is wind shear high in the atmosphere that might slice off the top of a
growing storm.

"It's sort of like if you are in the bathtub watching the water going down
the drain, and you move your leg," he said. "You'll knock it out, and it'll
take a few minutes to form again."

Trenberth said Tropical Storm Arlene, the first of the 2005 Atlantic season,
and Hurricane Catarina, which formed in March 2004 off Brazil, a place where
hurricanes aren't supposed to form, are other indications of the change that
could be under way.

Hurricanes have a natural intensity limit. But researchers at the NOAA's
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., say global warming
will likely intensify storms by about half a category over the next 80
years.

"You move to a warmer climate where there are warmer sea surface
temperatures, and that upper limit will increase," said Tom Knutson, a
research meteorologist with the lab.

And while more powerful winds are part of the picture, Trenberth said the
bigger problem will be flooding because future storms will dump more rain.

"It's not just about the hurricane itself or even the strength of the
winds," Trenberth said. "It's every bit as much about the rainfall and the
flooding."

Globally, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has risen 5 percent
over the last century and 10 percent in the area where hurricanes form,
Trenberth said.

More moisture in the storm means more rain when a hurricane or tropical
storm makes landfall.

Trenberth says it's bad news for coastal communities and inland ones alike.

The tiny town of Cruso, N.C., is a case in point.

When most people think of Hurricane Ivan's devastation, they don't think of
the town that sits near the Tennessee state line, hundreds of miles from the
Gulf of Mexico coast where Ivan struck land.

After blowing across Florida and Alabama and heading north, Ivan dumped 17
inches of rain on the North Carolina town, causing flooding, closing roads
and washing out bridges. Of the 92 deaths directly attributed to Ivan, eight
were in North Carolina and 14 were in Florida.

Climatologists say with global warming, coastal cities and places as far
inland as Cruso ought to prepare for stronger, wetter storms like Ivan in
years to come.

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the five hurricanes
that hit the United States in 2004, four in Florida and one in Gaston, S.C.,
caused more than $850 million in flood damage. Ivan accounted for $650
million of that.

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Published by David Sunfellow
NewHeavenNewEarth (NHNE)
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