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SAN-Feature Service
New Orleans,Oct. 30,2004
The Fight for White House
A light Kerry breeze blowing over the political landscape of America
By Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah
Only a few more days to go before voters head to the polling stations to cast their vote for either George Bush, the incumbent or John Kerry, the challenger. The Kerry camp is static about one thing: the nationwide poll number for Bush is stuck at 47-48%. John Kerry’s number is also the same. The independent candidate Ralph Nader may get 1% of the vote. That leaves 4-5% who are undecided voters; they surely will decide who the winner will be on November 2. Many a political pundit has opined that bulk of the undecided voters will side with the challenger, which is often the case. Under this scenario, there is an every bit of possibility that the incumbent president, George Bush, may lose this election unless something dramatic happens in the next 4-5 days.
Mark Mellman, John Kerry’s chief pollster, wrote a letter to a select group of Democrats on October 27, 2004, who contributed to Kerry campaign. Here is an excerpt from that letter: “George Bush appears to have hit a ceiling of support at 47-48%. During the past several weeks, he has tried to break through this ceiling by attacking John Kerry. This strategy has failed, and he is running up against the clock. An incumbent president who cannot break through the 50% barrier is going to find it very difficult to win reelection.”
The polltakers have become very sophisticated over the years. Also, a dozen or so independent pollsters have been taking polls on a daily basis. Remarkably, none of the pollsters has given George Bush a 50% poll rating or higher. This is indicative of what is to come in the wee hours of November 3 when CBS, NBC, ABC, PBS, CNN, Fox News, etc., will announce who took which state. In the TV screen, they will show the map of America with all 50 states and they will color each state with red or blue. Traditionally, if Bush wins a state it will be colored red and if Kerry wins a state, then that one will be colored blue. Somewhere in the TV screen the electoral vote counts will be shown for both the candidates.
Late in the October 27, I was listening in my car radio a business program in the National Public Radio (NPR) station. In one segment of the half-an hour program, the host interviewed two political pundits. Both had remarked that even though the race is very tight but a Kerry breeze may be blowing in America’s political landscape at this time. News came out on October 24, 2004, in which it was mentioned that American soldiers did not take control of an ammunition depot at Al Qaqaa weapons site south of Baghdad when they took control of the beleaguered nation in early April 2003. An estimated 377 tons of conventional explosives are missing from the ammunition depot. The U.S. military supposedly took control of the depot in April or May 2003 so American military officials are responsible now for finding the missing munitions and explaining why they lost track of them.
John Kerry spent no time whatsoever to make an election issue out of this bungling by the Pentagon. Mr. Bush was not talking about it at all. However, when the news engendered a hot political issue about the ineptness of the Bush Administration, the Bush campaign had to fight back and in the process, they become very defensive. It took some punch out of their campaign. Bush’s rhetoric on Kerry’s liberalism died down a bit. Things could not have turned better for Kerry campaign at the final leg of this long and arduous campaign.
Mr. Will Lester, an Associated Press writer, published a short report on October 27, 2004, which should be music to John Kerry and John Edwards’ ear. As per this report, Kerry gained some ground on Bush among swing voters in the last month. Kerry’s superb performances in all three debates were cited as the factor responsible for this shift. This was revealed in a poll released just today (October 27, 2004). The Pew Research Center (PRC) for the People and the Press contacted 519 voters who were either undecided in September 2004 or said they could still change their minds. That group tilted toward Bush in September and is now evenly split on Bush and Kerry. By more than 3-to-1, the swing voters said Kerry did the better job in the debates. PRC director, Andrew Kohut, said that swing voters had been drifting towards Kerry a little more than Bush.
The number of swing voters in that group who are either committed or leaning toward Kerry was 40 percent, up from 28 percent in September 2004, whereas, the number either committed or leaning toward Bush was 38 percent, compared to 34 percent in September 2004. Swing voters make up about 15 percent of the overall electorate, according to Pew polling. In a tight election like this one, the swing voters could make all the difference.
Here are some latest state polls taken by various polling organization on October 26-27, 2004. In tossup state Ohio, 4 pollsters have said Kerry will beat Bush by 1% vote. Only Rasmussen poll gave Bush a higher poll number. In Florida, the race is too tight; half the pollster gave 1-2% higher number for Bush and the other half gave 1-2% higher rating for Kerry. Nonetheless, no candidate had received a 50% but below the magic mark of 50% to Bush and the other half nodded for Kerry. The state of Pennsylvania is siding with Kerry with 3.4% higher poll number than Bush.
The Boston Globe published an article today (Oct. 27, 2004) entitled “Kerry winning the battle over coverage, study says.” A new study of campaign reporting concluded that the media covered Senator Kerry, buoyed by his performances in the presidential debates, far more favorably than President Bush in recent weeks. The survey released on October 26, 2004, by the Washington-based “Project for Excellence in Journalism” found that 59 percent of the stories that were primarily about Bush from Oct. 1-14 were negative in tone, compared to only 25 percent of the stories about Kerry. Moreover, while 34 percent of the Kerry coverage was favorable, a mere 14 percent of the president's coverage put him in a positive light. This goes to prove that the press has favorable view about Senator Kerry. In the event Bush lose this election, the Republicans will surely cry foul about the press’s favorable view of Senator Kerry.
In summary, Mr. Bush’s poll number is stuck around 47-48%; Kerry is also polling the same approval rating. On November 2, the undecided voters may opt for the challenger, which is what happens in American election and thereby they will tip the scale in favor of Senator Kerry. A favorably Kerry wind albeit not a brisk one is now blowing over the political landscape of America. Kerry capturing 271 or more electoral votes is in the card. Nonetheless, in a close election like this one, the voters may surprise the pollsters. Will this be the case? Probably not. When over 50% of the voters think the nation is headed in the wrong direction, then, a change in leadership is on the way. That is precisely why there is a good chance that the majority of the voters may favor Senator Kerry over President Bush.-SAN-Feature Service
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
New Orleans,Oct. 30,2004
The Fight for White House
A light Kerry breeze blowing over the political landscape of America
By Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah
Only a few more days to go before voters head to the polling stations to cast their vote for either George Bush, the incumbent or John Kerry, the challenger. The Kerry camp is static about one thing: the nationwide poll number for Bush is stuck at 47-48%. John Kerry’s number is also the same. The independent candidate Ralph Nader may get 1% of the vote. That leaves 4-5% who are undecided voters; they surely will decide who the winner will be on November 2. Many a political pundit has opined that bulk of the undecided voters will side with the challenger, which is often the case. Under this scenario, there is an every bit of possibility that the incumbent president, George Bush, may lose this election unless something dramatic happens in the next 4-5 days.
Mark Mellman, John Kerry’s chief pollster, wrote a letter to a select group of Democrats on October 27, 2004, who contributed to Kerry campaign. Here is an excerpt from that letter: “George Bush appears to have hit a ceiling of support at 47-48%. During the past several weeks, he has tried to break through this ceiling by attacking John Kerry. This strategy has failed, and he is running up against the clock. An incumbent president who cannot break through the 50% barrier is going to find it very difficult to win reelection.”
The polltakers have become very sophisticated over the years. Also, a dozen or so independent pollsters have been taking polls on a daily basis. Remarkably, none of the pollsters has given George Bush a 50% poll rating or higher. This is indicative of what is to come in the wee hours of November 3 when CBS, NBC, ABC, PBS, CNN, Fox News, etc., will announce who took which state. In the TV screen, they will show the map of America with all 50 states and they will color each state with red or blue. Traditionally, if Bush wins a state it will be colored red and if Kerry wins a state, then that one will be colored blue. Somewhere in the TV screen the electoral vote counts will be shown for both the candidates.
Late in the October 27, I was listening in my car radio a business program in the National Public Radio (NPR) station. In one segment of the half-an hour program, the host interviewed two political pundits. Both had remarked that even though the race is very tight but a Kerry breeze may be blowing in America’s political landscape at this time. News came out on October 24, 2004, in which it was mentioned that American soldiers did not take control of an ammunition depot at Al Qaqaa weapons site south of Baghdad when they took control of the beleaguered nation in early April 2003. An estimated 377 tons of conventional explosives are missing from the ammunition depot. The U.S. military supposedly took control of the depot in April or May 2003 so American military officials are responsible now for finding the missing munitions and explaining why they lost track of them.
John Kerry spent no time whatsoever to make an election issue out of this bungling by the Pentagon. Mr. Bush was not talking about it at all. However, when the news engendered a hot political issue about the ineptness of the Bush Administration, the Bush campaign had to fight back and in the process, they become very defensive. It took some punch out of their campaign. Bush’s rhetoric on Kerry’s liberalism died down a bit. Things could not have turned better for Kerry campaign at the final leg of this long and arduous campaign.
Mr. Will Lester, an Associated Press writer, published a short report on October 27, 2004, which should be music to John Kerry and John Edwards’ ear. As per this report, Kerry gained some ground on Bush among swing voters in the last month. Kerry’s superb performances in all three debates were cited as the factor responsible for this shift. This was revealed in a poll released just today (October 27, 2004). The Pew Research Center (PRC) for the People and the Press contacted 519 voters who were either undecided in September 2004 or said they could still change their minds. That group tilted toward Bush in September and is now evenly split on Bush and Kerry. By more than 3-to-1, the swing voters said Kerry did the better job in the debates. PRC director, Andrew Kohut, said that swing voters had been drifting towards Kerry a little more than Bush.
The number of swing voters in that group who are either committed or leaning toward Kerry was 40 percent, up from 28 percent in September 2004, whereas, the number either committed or leaning toward Bush was 38 percent, compared to 34 percent in September 2004. Swing voters make up about 15 percent of the overall electorate, according to Pew polling. In a tight election like this one, the swing voters could make all the difference.
Here are some latest state polls taken by various polling organization on October 26-27, 2004. In tossup state Ohio, 4 pollsters have said Kerry will beat Bush by 1% vote. Only Rasmussen poll gave Bush a higher poll number. In Florida, the race is too tight; half the pollster gave 1-2% higher number for Bush and the other half gave 1-2% higher rating for Kerry. Nonetheless, no candidate had received a 50% but below the magic mark of 50% to Bush and the other half nodded for Kerry. The state of Pennsylvania is siding with Kerry with 3.4% higher poll number than Bush.
The Boston Globe published an article today (Oct. 27, 2004) entitled “Kerry winning the battle over coverage, study says.” A new study of campaign reporting concluded that the media covered Senator Kerry, buoyed by his performances in the presidential debates, far more favorably than President Bush in recent weeks. The survey released on October 26, 2004, by the Washington-based “Project for Excellence in Journalism” found that 59 percent of the stories that were primarily about Bush from Oct. 1-14 were negative in tone, compared to only 25 percent of the stories about Kerry. Moreover, while 34 percent of the Kerry coverage was favorable, a mere 14 percent of the president's coverage put him in a positive light. This goes to prove that the press has favorable view about Senator Kerry. In the event Bush lose this election, the Republicans will surely cry foul about the press’s favorable view of Senator Kerry.
In summary, Mr. Bush’s poll number is stuck around 47-48%; Kerry is also polling the same approval rating. On November 2, the undecided voters may opt for the challenger, which is what happens in American election and thereby they will tip the scale in favor of Senator Kerry. A favorably Kerry wind albeit not a brisk one is now blowing over the political landscape of America. Kerry capturing 271 or more electoral votes is in the card. Nonetheless, in a close election like this one, the voters may surprise the pollsters. Will this be the case? Probably not. When over 50% of the voters think the nation is headed in the wrong direction, then, a change in leadership is on the way. That is precisely why there is a good chance that the majority of the voters may favor Senator Kerry over President Bush.-SAN-Feature Service
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
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