The Christian Right, which always supports the Republican ticket, is now having their doubts about George W. Bush’s leadership.  In the third week of October 2004, a war of words broke between Jerry Falwell, the leader of Christian Right, and George Bush. 

Dear Moderator:

I dont belive the above statement is correct. The person who expressed his doubts on CNN was Pat Robertson of the 700 club, not Falwell.

Thank you

Robin
-----Original Message-----
From: SAN-Feature Service
Sent: Oct 27, 2004 9:12 PM
To:
Subject: [nirvana] Is Kerry-Edward Winning ?

SAN-Feature Service
SOUTH ASIAN NEWS-FEATURE SERVICE
New Orleans, Oct. 29,2004
 
U.S. Election 2004
Is Kerry-Edward Winning ?
Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah
 
SAN-Feature Service :- On Tuesday, November 2, millions of Americans will head to the polling center across this vast land.  In the last presidential election held on November 7, 2000, the total number of people who showed up at the polling places was over 104 million (to be exact 104,338,854).  George Bush had received 47.87% of the popular as opposed to Al Gore’s 48.38% but because of winning a few more electoral votes than Al Gore, he became the winner.  This time around, an estimated 120 to 125 million people will cast their votes.  There is an unusually high interest in this year’s presidential election.  The nation is divided on certain key issues.  More voters think that the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
 
The pollsters are puzzled because conflicting conclusions are being drawn from various polls taken throughout the election season.  The race is tightening up in the battleground states.  In addition, the new voters, which amount to millions, may side with one candidate over the other.  However, since Democratic Party workers in the inner cities registered most of the new voters, these new voters are assets to Kerry-Edwards ticket.  How many of them would turn up at the polling places on November 2 is a different question altogether. 
 
Many political pundits in America have opined that John Kerry cannot win this election without winning Ohio (20 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes).  In addition, Kerry has to win all the states Al Gore had won in 2000.  This is a formidable task but Kerry inner circle has doggedly pursued a vigorous campaign by enlisting tens and thousands of college kids who are calling undecided voters in the battleground states of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico. 
 

I have been following quite few-respected poll taking organizations amongst them Rasmussen is the most prominent one.  On October 25, 2004, I read the poll result taken by Rasmussen and reported in a website call “Prez track 2004.”  The latest tracking poll shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%.  This is the first time Senator Kerry has held the lead since August 23.  The 48.4% for Kerry is the Senator's highest total since August 17, 2004.  Data for this update was collected on a three-day rolling average basis and Senator Kerry held the lead on each of the three days of polling.  Now, when Rasmussen poll included “leaners,” Kerry leads 49% to 48%.  Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for Bush or Kerry. 

 

It is every bit possible that one-time consumer activist Ralph Nader who is also running for the highest office may receive 1% of the total vote.  That leaves 5% voters who are still undecided.  Many political pundits have said that when an incumbent runs for reëlection, the poll rating what the incumbent receives a week before the election will be his final number.  In other words, the bulk of the undecided voters will side with the challenger.  If that opinion has any merit, then it looks like Kerry may win the election on November 2, 2004. 

 

It is worth mentioning here that Bush’s popularity poll had never stayed for too long over 50% range.  Most of the time, that number fell between 46 to 48%.  I read in May 2004 an article published in the conservative Wall Street Journal in which a writer mentioned that poll taken six month before the election date is a good index for determining whether the incumbent will win the election in November that year.  An incumbent has to score over 50% in popularity poll to win the election six months later.  To bolster this yardstick the writer presented a table in which it was shown that the losing incumbents such as Gerald Ford (1976), Jimmy Carter (1980), and George Bush Senior (1992) all scored below 50% and all of them were denied victory in their second bid to become a second-term president, whereas both Ronald Reagan (1984) and Bill Clinton (1996) had scored over 50% in May of the election year.  Now the readers may want to know what was the number for George W. Bush in May 2004.  I think Bush’s popularity poll was closer to 47% six months before the election.  I would ask the readers to draw their own conclusion in light of this remarkable yardstick.  However, Mr. Bush still may win the election breaking all the yardsticks and proving all the polltakers wrong.  However, please look at the mood of the nation in the final weeks of the election.

More Americans think that the nation is headed in the wrong direction.  Therefore, they think a change is necessary in the leadership.  This is the most important piece of statistics.  If more Americans think the nation is going in the wrong direction under Bush’s leadership, what chance the incumbent president has to win this election?  More damaging information is coming from Iraq everyday.  Yesterday (October 25, 2004), we learned that the Americans had failed to secure a site that stored a massive amount of weapons.  Senator Kerry is making this an issue of leadership in this election.

The Christian Right, which always supports the Republican ticket, is now having their doubts about George W. Bush’s leadership.  In the third week of October 2004, a war of words broke between Jerry Falwell, the leader of Christian Right, and George Bush.  Mr. Falwell is now saying that he recommended to Bush in 2003 that a war in Iraq could be very messy and we should avoid it at all cost but Mr. Bush did not listen to him.  Bush’s campaign responded by saying that such conversation never took place.  It seems as if the Christian Right, a coalition of evangelical Christian organizations in America, is trying to distance from Mr. Bush.  Do they see that Bush is going to be defeated on November second election?  Or else, why should they fuss about Bush’s leadership at this time.

 

The political wind is backing Kerry-Edwards ticket so much so that former President Bill Clinton has just joined the campaign after two months of his recovery from a quadruple bypass coronary surgery.  Clinton’s participation in the final leg of the campaign has ignited a fire.  The Kerry campaign is using Clinton to shore up supports amongst African Americans.  If this group of voters and in particular, the new voters, would turn up in massive number, then Kerry’s victory is a done deal.  It is noteworthy that many Democrats including former VP Al Gore has joined the Kerry campaign; Democrats are unified this time after losing a closely contested election of 2000.  This however is not true for Bush campaign.  Many senior Republicans are not all that happy about Bush’s unilateral occupation of Iraq in March 2003.  Only months ago, at least a dozen or so Republican veteran bureaucrats who served in Ford, Reagan, and Bush senior administrations have come to say publicly that George W. Bush has brought shame to America through his misadventure in Iraq.  Many senior Republican politicians are distancing themselves from Bush campaign.  This is not a good sign at all.

 

As a last ditch effort to win the presidential election on November 2, 2004, Bush campaign had unleashed a TV ad to show that America is stalked by wolfs (read enemies).  The ad says only George Bush can fight the enemy.  Bush-Cheney campaign has made “fear” a tool to win the election.  Therefore, they are injecting a massive dose of fear amongst the voters.  This approach may work up to some point but then it may backfire too.  It seems as if the Bush campaign probably knows through their internal polling that they are going to lose this election; therefore, on desperation they unleashed that shocking video. 

 

In summary, the election is less than a week as of this writing.  According to Rasmussen poll, nationwide Kerry is 2% ahead in the popularity poll.  This is the first time a definite polarization in favor of John Kerry is taking place.  Since more than 50% of the possible voters think that overall the nation is headed in the wrong direction, a change in leadership is therefore in the card.  Under this backdrop, how could George Bush become a second-term president remains an open question.  In a tight election race as this one, the pollsters could be wrong.  In 1948 President Truman, a Democrat, was supposed to lose the election as per poll, but his performance in the election proved the pollsters wrong.  I do not think this would be the case on November 2, 2004.  If the Election Day does not bring any inclement weather and voters turn up by high number, Mr. George Bush may join his father to become yet another one-term president.  Therefore, stay tuned for election results in the wee hours of November 3, 2004.-SAN-Feature Service
 
Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA

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