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New Orleans, October 26,2004
The dynamics of U.S. election brings: domestic issues
By Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah
The U.S. presidential election is at homestretch and it is making the candidates crisscross America in battleground or tossup states. At one stage, there were dozen or so tossups states but as election nears that number has dwindled to 6 or 7 and prominent among them are Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and perhaps Colorado.
After the third debate, the shortage of flu vaccine in this nation has become a red-hot issue; Kerry campaign has certainly taken advantage of the development. The U.S. authorities now want to import flu vaccine from Canada, a nation that would like to sell prescription drugs to America at a low low price, but the Bush Administration is fighting tooth and nail to block that move telling the Americans that the practice is fraught with fear and unsafe. However, Mr. Bush does not see any danger in importing flu vaccine now that it has become an election issue.
Mr. Bush finding no significant issue to lambaste his opponent has resorted to the big “L” wordLiberal to “daub” John Kerry. They way Bush utters the word, he may think that “Liberal” is a horrible attribute. Lest he forgot, many of the world’s smart ideas came from liberal thinking. But in the context of American politics, a liberal politician in Washington D.C. is supposed to be a big spender. Mr. Bush has conveniently forgotten that the liberal administration of Bill Clinton has produced the biggest surplus, trillions of dollar, but the big spender George Bush has frittered the surplus away pushing the country into red. The cost of running the Iraq War amounts to over 200 billion dollar. John Kerry had pointed it out in one of the debates but Americans are not paying much attention to it. George Bush wants to scare the undecided voters by labeling John Kerry as “Liberal” politician. As the polls taken by various pollsters are not changing in favor of Bush, the Republicans are fretting for a good reason. I read in several places that when an incumbent runs for the office, the popular poll for the sitting president should be over 50%. For George Bush, that figure ranges from 47 to 49%. In a nationwide poll conducted by the Zogby International/Reuters on October 19, 2004, both Bush and Kerry had received 45% of the popular support while 7% are still undecided. It is mentionable here that Zogby International did correctly predict the outcome of 2000 presidential election.
Some political pundits in America have said that when a sitting president runs for the second term, he had better receive 50% or above poll rating because the undecided voters normally sides with the challenger. That is the reason Kerry camp is rejoicing at the poll figure, which shows neck and neck competition between their candidate and George Bush. Prof. Sam Wang of Princeton University maintains a website on election 2004, where he did meta-analysis of state polls. He wrote, “It is known to poll analysts that voters who are undecided usually end up voting against the incumbent.” Thus, more of the undecided voters will end up in Kerry’s side. As I have said earlier, the election is a dead heat with 6-7% still undecided. Therefore, it is every bit possible that 75% of the undecided voters may vote for Kerry and thereby tilt the election in his favor.
If one shifts his or her focus from national level to state and specially looks at the poll taken recently in each of the tossup states such as Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, a different story emerges. In Ohio, where both candidates are campaigning fiercely, poll taken by both Survey USA and University of Cincinnati gave Kerry a higher poll number than Bush. In key tossup states such as Florida and Pennsylvania, the recent poll (October 19, 2004) taken by more than one survey team put Kerry over Bush by 1-2%. These are very significant move given the ground reality that the election is a dead heat in 6-7 tossup states.
Dick Cheney who is playing hardball these days in battleground states was campaigning on October 19, 2004, in a Ohio town by the name Carroll where he raised the specter of terrorists with biological, chemical or even nuclear weapons attacking U.S. Cheney said, “You've got to get your mind around that concept.” By this what he implied was that Kerry could not cope with the threat. Therefore, do the obvious and that is, vote for the Republican ticket.
Social Security, the safety net for millions of retired Americans, has become a political hot potato in this election. While campaigning in Wilkes-Barre, a Pennsylvania small town, Kerry said that Bush's economic policies have put it (Social Security) “on a dangerous road. Now he’s asking for another four years to privatize the program, and undo the sacred compact we've made with our seniors.” Kerry to reassure the voters further said, “I will not privatize Social Security. I will not cut benefits. I will not raise the retirement age. Because when you've worked hard for a lifetime, America owes you what you've earned.”
Bush is lately saying that Kerry is injecting fear in the campaign for White House. Therefore, to allay the fears, Bush urged his audiences in Florida while campaigning on October 19, 2004 to “reject the politics of fear” at the ballot box. Retirees, 47 million of them, will continue to get their checks (Social Security), he said, “no matter what they (Democrats) try to tell you.” And the program is “in pretty good shape” for the Baby Boomers, he further said.
As the election nears, domestic issues relating to pocketbook has taken the center stage. In a recent poll when voters were asked to prioritize the issues, they listed War in Iraq, and economy as the two most important concerns they have. Fighting global terrorism, which Bush once thought to be the number one issue in this election, has taken the distant third position. No wonder Kerry and Edwards are bringing up the anemic job growth issue, outsourcing of job to Asia, Social Security, shortage of flu vaccines and myriad of domestic issue to challenge Bush and Cheney.
The dynamics of election thus has changed from fighting global terrorism to mundane domestic issue. The stepped up insurgencies in Iraq, which coincides with suicide car bombing in the “Green Zone” and in other government installations is keeping the Iraq War in focus amongst the voters. This has to be a bad news for candidate Bush. As they say, there is no telling which issue may become big in this campaign. Who could have thought that the paucity of flu vaccine this fall could have become a burning election issue? Kerry campaign very cleverly has made this issue to demonstrate that the Bush Administration is not serious about the health of elderly and young Americans who are susceptible to flu viruses. This is just an example of Bush’s ineptness. Many elderly persons were found standing in a line to wait for vaccination in Florida. Some senior citizens may get the impression that Bush is nonchalant about their welfare and this may cost vote in such tossup state as Florida where a disproportionately large number of senior citizens live.
In summary, as the Election Day approaches, the mundane domestic issues took the center stage pushing aside such one-time hot topic as fighting the global terrorists. Americans are concerned about their safety net, the Social Security system, availability of flu vaccine, job growth, job outsourcing, etc. The tight race is making the candidates jittery and nervous. Bush and Cheney under pressure are trying to invoke fears among the voters. Cheney thinks that al-Qaeda might even strike at America with nuclear arsenal to hinder the election process. Whereas, Bush and Sen. John Kerry both vied for the senior vote swapping charges over Social Security and a looming shortage of flu vaccine 14 days before Election Day. Stay tuned. For more is yet to come.
Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
New Orleans, October 26,2004
The dynamics of U.S. election brings: domestic issues
By Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah
The U.S. presidential election is at homestretch and it is making the candidates crisscross America in battleground or tossup states. At one stage, there were dozen or so tossups states but as election nears that number has dwindled to 6 or 7 and prominent among them are Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and perhaps Colorado.
After the third debate, the shortage of flu vaccine in this nation has become a red-hot issue; Kerry campaign has certainly taken advantage of the development. The U.S. authorities now want to import flu vaccine from Canada, a nation that would like to sell prescription drugs to America at a low low price, but the Bush Administration is fighting tooth and nail to block that move telling the Americans that the practice is fraught with fear and unsafe. However, Mr. Bush does not see any danger in importing flu vaccine now that it has become an election issue.
Mr. Bush finding no significant issue to lambaste his opponent has resorted to the big “L” wordLiberal to “daub” John Kerry. They way Bush utters the word, he may think that “Liberal” is a horrible attribute. Lest he forgot, many of the world’s smart ideas came from liberal thinking. But in the context of American politics, a liberal politician in Washington D.C. is supposed to be a big spender. Mr. Bush has conveniently forgotten that the liberal administration of Bill Clinton has produced the biggest surplus, trillions of dollar, but the big spender George Bush has frittered the surplus away pushing the country into red. The cost of running the Iraq War amounts to over 200 billion dollar. John Kerry had pointed it out in one of the debates but Americans are not paying much attention to it. George Bush wants to scare the undecided voters by labeling John Kerry as “Liberal” politician. As the polls taken by various pollsters are not changing in favor of Bush, the Republicans are fretting for a good reason. I read in several places that when an incumbent runs for the office, the popular poll for the sitting president should be over 50%. For George Bush, that figure ranges from 47 to 49%. In a nationwide poll conducted by the Zogby International/Reuters on October 19, 2004, both Bush and Kerry had received 45% of the popular support while 7% are still undecided. It is mentionable here that Zogby International did correctly predict the outcome of 2000 presidential election.
Some political pundits in America have said that when a sitting president runs for the second term, he had better receive 50% or above poll rating because the undecided voters normally sides with the challenger. That is the reason Kerry camp is rejoicing at the poll figure, which shows neck and neck competition between their candidate and George Bush. Prof. Sam Wang of Princeton University maintains a website on election 2004, where he did meta-analysis of state polls. He wrote, “It is known to poll analysts that voters who are undecided usually end up voting against the incumbent.” Thus, more of the undecided voters will end up in Kerry’s side. As I have said earlier, the election is a dead heat with 6-7% still undecided. Therefore, it is every bit possible that 75% of the undecided voters may vote for Kerry and thereby tilt the election in his favor.
If one shifts his or her focus from national level to state and specially looks at the poll taken recently in each of the tossup states such as Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, a different story emerges. In Ohio, where both candidates are campaigning fiercely, poll taken by both Survey USA and University of Cincinnati gave Kerry a higher poll number than Bush. In key tossup states such as Florida and Pennsylvania, the recent poll (October 19, 2004) taken by more than one survey team put Kerry over Bush by 1-2%. These are very significant move given the ground reality that the election is a dead heat in 6-7 tossup states.
Dick Cheney who is playing hardball these days in battleground states was campaigning on October 19, 2004, in a Ohio town by the name Carroll where he raised the specter of terrorists with biological, chemical or even nuclear weapons attacking U.S. Cheney said, “You've got to get your mind around that concept.” By this what he implied was that Kerry could not cope with the threat. Therefore, do the obvious and that is, vote for the Republican ticket.
Social Security, the safety net for millions of retired Americans, has become a political hot potato in this election. While campaigning in Wilkes-Barre, a Pennsylvania small town, Kerry said that Bush's economic policies have put it (Social Security) “on a dangerous road. Now he’s asking for another four years to privatize the program, and undo the sacred compact we've made with our seniors.” Kerry to reassure the voters further said, “I will not privatize Social Security. I will not cut benefits. I will not raise the retirement age. Because when you've worked hard for a lifetime, America owes you what you've earned.”
Bush is lately saying that Kerry is injecting fear in the campaign for White House. Therefore, to allay the fears, Bush urged his audiences in Florida while campaigning on October 19, 2004 to “reject the politics of fear” at the ballot box. Retirees, 47 million of them, will continue to get their checks (Social Security), he said, “no matter what they (Democrats) try to tell you.” And the program is “in pretty good shape” for the Baby Boomers, he further said.
As the election nears, domestic issues relating to pocketbook has taken the center stage. In a recent poll when voters were asked to prioritize the issues, they listed War in Iraq, and economy as the two most important concerns they have. Fighting global terrorism, which Bush once thought to be the number one issue in this election, has taken the distant third position. No wonder Kerry and Edwards are bringing up the anemic job growth issue, outsourcing of job to Asia, Social Security, shortage of flu vaccines and myriad of domestic issue to challenge Bush and Cheney.
The dynamics of election thus has changed from fighting global terrorism to mundane domestic issue. The stepped up insurgencies in Iraq, which coincides with suicide car bombing in the “Green Zone” and in other government installations is keeping the Iraq War in focus amongst the voters. This has to be a bad news for candidate Bush. As they say, there is no telling which issue may become big in this campaign. Who could have thought that the paucity of flu vaccine this fall could have become a burning election issue? Kerry campaign very cleverly has made this issue to demonstrate that the Bush Administration is not serious about the health of elderly and young Americans who are susceptible to flu viruses. This is just an example of Bush’s ineptness. Many elderly persons were found standing in a line to wait for vaccination in Florida. Some senior citizens may get the impression that Bush is nonchalant about their welfare and this may cost vote in such tossup state as Florida where a disproportionately large number of senior citizens live.
In summary, as the Election Day approaches, the mundane domestic issues took the center stage pushing aside such one-time hot topic as fighting the global terrorists. Americans are concerned about their safety net, the Social Security system, availability of flu vaccine, job growth, job outsourcing, etc. The tight race is making the candidates jittery and nervous. Bush and Cheney under pressure are trying to invoke fears among the voters. Cheney thinks that al-Qaeda might even strike at America with nuclear arsenal to hinder the election process. Whereas, Bush and Sen. John Kerry both vied for the senior vote swapping charges over Social Security and a looming shortage of flu vaccine 14 days before Election Day. Stay tuned. For more is yet to come.
Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
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