SAN-Feature Service
New Orleans, October 19,2004
An Assessment :
Who Will Be The Winner ? Bush or Kerry?
By Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah
The fight for White House is winding down very fast. Needless to say, the campaign has become an outright vicious one with personal attacks going every which way. Mr. Bush’s campaign is desperately asking voters in Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin to vote for the incumbent president. There is a good reason for concentrating in these three states. The challenger, Senator Kerry is slightly ahead in the poll in those three states and if he wins these three tossup states, then Mr. Bush can kiss goodbye to his aspiration for becoming the next president of this great republic. Mr. Kerry will the have 284 electoral votes14 votes more than what is required to win the big election if he carries these 3 crucial states.
Let me analyze how Senator Kerry might be able to secure 284 electoral votes, which is a fair prediction and contingent upon his carrying the states of Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. The rest of the states are pretty much divided very evenly in terms of electoral votes between the Republican and the Democratic candidates.
Even though America is composed of 50 states, the population is not evenly divided among them. More people live in the eastern and western seaboards. Thus, disproportionately large number of electoral votes is held by 8 states. There are altogether 538 electoral votes of which only 8 populous states hold 226 electoral votes. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the grand prize. Senator Kerry may receive a whopping 165 electoral votes (given in the parenthesis) from six populous states; these are California (55), New York (31), Pennsylvania (21), Illinois (21), Ohio (20), and Michigan (17). Mr. Bush, on the other hand may carry only Texas (34) and Florida (27) totaling 61 electoral votes. The state of Florida may even go to Kerry because the poll is too tight in the state that went to Bush in 2000 by only 500 or so votes.
The rest, 42 states, hold 312 electoral votes. Looking at the total picture 21 states are solidly behind George Bush with 176 electoral votes. John Kerry, on the other hand, has lined up 10 states and the District of Columbia in his favor with 153 electoral votes. A total of 7 states with 78 electoral votes are leaning towards Bush. Therefore, Bush may receive 254 electoral votes in this election. John Kerry’s campaign believes they have 8 additional states with 94 electoral votes in their favor. Therefore, Kerry is banking on a total of 243 electoral votes. This leaves only 4 more states (Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire) with 36 precious electoral votes. The election is too tight in these states. However, many pundits believe that Iowa, New Mexico, and possibly New Hampshire may fall behind Kerry. Thus, the sixty-four thousand dollar question is who’s going to carry Ohio? There lies the answer. Whoever carries Ohio will win the election on November 2, 2004.
Mr. Bush is not so sure that he will win the state of Ohio as he narrowly did in 2000. Ohio is an industrial state with manufacturing hub in the northern part with such populous city as Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron, and Toledo. In the central part is located such cities as Columbus and Dayton. In the south is Cincinnati, which used to be a Republican majority county in the seventies when I attended my graduate school. In May this year, I went to Cincinnati for a visit and asked my old professor who might win Ohio in coming November. My professor told me that George Bush is vulnerable this time around because of faltering economy in Ohio. The pollsters are giving Ohio to John Kerry at this time but there is no telling what might happen from now until the Election Day. But that statement is true for other tossup states too.
If I have to go along with majority of the pollsters, I may count Ohio in the column of Senator John Kerry. Thus, Kerry may be receiving 283 electoral votes in the upcoming election. However, if he fails to win Ohio then Bush might receive 274 electoral votes to win the election. On the evening of November 2 when all the polls will be closed, millions of Americans will be glued to their TV sets. The younger generation might logon to Yahoo, MSN, or Netscape portals to see who gets what states. Traditionally, Ohio’s vote counts are always late. In 1976, when challenger Jimmy Carter ran against Gerald Ford, we did not know for 24 hours who carried the Buckeye State, which is the nickname of Ohio. When the vote counting was done, we learned that Jimmy Carter took the state by receiving only 11,116 votes when the total vote cast was in excess of 4 million. In 2000, George Bush carried the state receiving 165,019 more votes over Al Gore. We did not know until the wee hours of the night who did carry Ohio. This time around, approximately 4.6 million voters in Ohio will cast their vote and possibly, we will not know whether Kerry or Bush has claimed the state for a long time. However, the network giants such as CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, and Fox network will have their pundits give the state either to Kerry or Bush depending upon the exit poll.
In 2000 election, some TV network giants have first declared the state of Florida in favor of Al Gore but hours after they retracted the story and put the entire election prediction into a quandary. Therefore, this year, the network stations will be very careful when they assign any of the 4 or 5 tossup states either r to Bush’s or Kerry’s camp.
On October 17 , the Associated Press reporter Mr. Ron Fournier had a piece on U.S. presidential election in the Internet. His article did mention 8 tossup states which are Florida (27), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania 21), Wisconsin (10), Iowa 7), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4) and New Mexico (5) that will decide the fate of the upcoming election. His article also mentioned three states (Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio) that might finally decide the winner. The Democratic consultant Greg Haas of Columbus, Ohio, said, “Whoever wins two of those three wins the White House - and I hope to God it's my guy.” Senator Kerry knows darn well that he has to win Ohio or else he will lose this close election. That means he and John Edwards have to visit more often in Ohio. I will not be surprised if I see that both Bush and Kerry and their running mates all campaigning in Ohio or in Florida on November 1, 2004 just the day before the big day. Senator Kerry of Ohio he said on October 16, 2004, “I'm not saying I've been here a lot but I'm about to have my mail forwarded here.''
If however George Bush’s campaign do silly mistakes in the next few days and the insurgents in Iraq steps up their activity causing more fatalities among U.S. soldiers, then Bush may not get those tossup states which were given to him at this time. There is the chance that Florida may go into Kerry’s column. In that case, Kerry might receive not 284 electoral votes but 301 and Bush may receive 227 electoral votes.
The surprise factor in this election is the new voters. The Democratic Party had started a grassroots movement to enlist young folks who just turned 18 or over into the voters’ list. The Republican Party knows that a majority of the new voters may side with John Kerry. Also, in Florida, few counties (districts) that were affected by two hurricanes are home to affluent Republicans. These voters are busy now with their house repairs. Their minds are not in the election and if they fail to cast their votes, then John Kerry may come out winner in Florida.
In summary, this upcoming election is giving many a pundits some heartache. Who will be the winner? In my humble opinion Senator Kerry’s campaign had locked thus far 243 electoral votes. However, they may win the 4-tossup states to add 36 combined electoral votes from Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and lastly, the big state of Ohio to come up with 284 electoral votes. Not either of the candidates can win the big election without winning the Buckeye State (Ohio), which has 20 very decisive electoral votes.-SAN-Feature Service
Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
New Orleans, October 19,2004
An Assessment :
Who Will Be The Winner ? Bush or Kerry?
By Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah
The fight for White House is winding down very fast. Needless to say, the campaign has become an outright vicious one with personal attacks going every which way. Mr. Bush’s campaign is desperately asking voters in Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin to vote for the incumbent president. There is a good reason for concentrating in these three states. The challenger, Senator Kerry is slightly ahead in the poll in those three states and if he wins these three tossup states, then Mr. Bush can kiss goodbye to his aspiration for becoming the next president of this great republic. Mr. Kerry will the have 284 electoral votes14 votes more than what is required to win the big election if he carries these 3 crucial states.
Let me analyze how Senator Kerry might be able to secure 284 electoral votes, which is a fair prediction and contingent upon his carrying the states of Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. The rest of the states are pretty much divided very evenly in terms of electoral votes between the Republican and the Democratic candidates.
Even though America is composed of 50 states, the population is not evenly divided among them. More people live in the eastern and western seaboards. Thus, disproportionately large number of electoral votes is held by 8 states. There are altogether 538 electoral votes of which only 8 populous states hold 226 electoral votes. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the grand prize. Senator Kerry may receive a whopping 165 electoral votes (given in the parenthesis) from six populous states; these are California (55), New York (31), Pennsylvania (21), Illinois (21), Ohio (20), and Michigan (17). Mr. Bush, on the other hand may carry only Texas (34) and Florida (27) totaling 61 electoral votes. The state of Florida may even go to Kerry because the poll is too tight in the state that went to Bush in 2000 by only 500 or so votes.
The rest, 42 states, hold 312 electoral votes. Looking at the total picture 21 states are solidly behind George Bush with 176 electoral votes. John Kerry, on the other hand, has lined up 10 states and the District of Columbia in his favor with 153 electoral votes. A total of 7 states with 78 electoral votes are leaning towards Bush. Therefore, Bush may receive 254 electoral votes in this election. John Kerry’s campaign believes they have 8 additional states with 94 electoral votes in their favor. Therefore, Kerry is banking on a total of 243 electoral votes. This leaves only 4 more states (Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire) with 36 precious electoral votes. The election is too tight in these states. However, many pundits believe that Iowa, New Mexico, and possibly New Hampshire may fall behind Kerry. Thus, the sixty-four thousand dollar question is who’s going to carry Ohio? There lies the answer. Whoever carries Ohio will win the election on November 2, 2004.
Mr. Bush is not so sure that he will win the state of Ohio as he narrowly did in 2000. Ohio is an industrial state with manufacturing hub in the northern part with such populous city as Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron, and Toledo. In the central part is located such cities as Columbus and Dayton. In the south is Cincinnati, which used to be a Republican majority county in the seventies when I attended my graduate school. In May this year, I went to Cincinnati for a visit and asked my old professor who might win Ohio in coming November. My professor told me that George Bush is vulnerable this time around because of faltering economy in Ohio. The pollsters are giving Ohio to John Kerry at this time but there is no telling what might happen from now until the Election Day. But that statement is true for other tossup states too.
If I have to go along with majority of the pollsters, I may count Ohio in the column of Senator John Kerry. Thus, Kerry may be receiving 283 electoral votes in the upcoming election. However, if he fails to win Ohio then Bush might receive 274 electoral votes to win the election. On the evening of November 2 when all the polls will be closed, millions of Americans will be glued to their TV sets. The younger generation might logon to Yahoo, MSN, or Netscape portals to see who gets what states. Traditionally, Ohio’s vote counts are always late. In 1976, when challenger Jimmy Carter ran against Gerald Ford, we did not know for 24 hours who carried the Buckeye State, which is the nickname of Ohio. When the vote counting was done, we learned that Jimmy Carter took the state by receiving only 11,116 votes when the total vote cast was in excess of 4 million. In 2000, George Bush carried the state receiving 165,019 more votes over Al Gore. We did not know until the wee hours of the night who did carry Ohio. This time around, approximately 4.6 million voters in Ohio will cast their vote and possibly, we will not know whether Kerry or Bush has claimed the state for a long time. However, the network giants such as CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, and Fox network will have their pundits give the state either to Kerry or Bush depending upon the exit poll.
In 2000 election, some TV network giants have first declared the state of Florida in favor of Al Gore but hours after they retracted the story and put the entire election prediction into a quandary. Therefore, this year, the network stations will be very careful when they assign any of the 4 or 5 tossup states either r to Bush’s or Kerry’s camp.
On October 17 , the Associated Press reporter Mr. Ron Fournier had a piece on U.S. presidential election in the Internet. His article did mention 8 tossup states which are Florida (27), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania 21), Wisconsin (10), Iowa 7), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4) and New Mexico (5) that will decide the fate of the upcoming election. His article also mentioned three states (Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio) that might finally decide the winner. The Democratic consultant Greg Haas of Columbus, Ohio, said, “Whoever wins two of those three wins the White House - and I hope to God it's my guy.” Senator Kerry knows darn well that he has to win Ohio or else he will lose this close election. That means he and John Edwards have to visit more often in Ohio. I will not be surprised if I see that both Bush and Kerry and their running mates all campaigning in Ohio or in Florida on November 1, 2004 just the day before the big day. Senator Kerry of Ohio he said on October 16, 2004, “I'm not saying I've been here a lot but I'm about to have my mail forwarded here.''
If however George Bush’s campaign do silly mistakes in the next few days and the insurgents in Iraq steps up their activity causing more fatalities among U.S. soldiers, then Bush may not get those tossup states which were given to him at this time. There is the chance that Florida may go into Kerry’s column. In that case, Kerry might receive not 284 electoral votes but 301 and Bush may receive 227 electoral votes.
The surprise factor in this election is the new voters. The Democratic Party had started a grassroots movement to enlist young folks who just turned 18 or over into the voters’ list. The Republican Party knows that a majority of the new voters may side with John Kerry. Also, in Florida, few counties (districts) that were affected by two hurricanes are home to affluent Republicans. These voters are busy now with their house repairs. Their minds are not in the election and if they fail to cast their votes, then John Kerry may come out winner in Florida.
In summary, this upcoming election is giving many a pundits some heartache. Who will be the winner? In my humble opinion Senator Kerry’s campaign had locked thus far 243 electoral votes. However, they may win the 4-tossup states to add 36 combined electoral votes from Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and lastly, the big state of Ohio to come up with 284 electoral votes. Not either of the candidates can win the big election without winning the Buckeye State (Ohio), which has 20 very decisive electoral votes.-SAN-Feature Service
Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes from New Orleans, USA
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