Don't know I did not put in Clark Fox ... From: "warren" <jacksorbetter4@...> To: <hr100@yahoogroups.com> Subject: [hr100] Time Date: Mon, Dec 10, 2012...
3012
bpwrlc@...
blakepwood
Dec 11, 2012 4:06 am
9 am MST, but it will probably be 10 am before we start pulling tickets, as it takes a while to cut up a gazillion little pieces of paper. - Blake ... From:...
3013
warren muldoon
jacksorbetter4
Dec 11, 2012 4:08 am
Thank you, Warren ________________________________ From: "bpwrlc@..." <bpwrlc@...> To: hr100@yahoogroups.com Sent: Monday, December 10, 2012...
3014
John Constan
johnconstan...
Dec 11, 2012 9:30 pm
Blake can we volunteer to help and maybe earn an extra ticket or two for the lottery? Any chance can help, really want to run HR 2013. John Constan Desire...
3015
Bloom, Jerry S
bloom_jerry
Dec 12, 2012 3:01 pm
A gazillion? I was figuring you were only going to pull a kajillion. Be grateful it could have been a katriliion. If I had a bit more time and a little more...
3016
bpwrlc@...
blakepwood
Dec 12, 2012 3:13 pm
Okay, perhaps I exaggerated. It's really only 2775 tickets in the three lotteries put together. - Blake ... From: "Jerry S Bloom" <jerry.bloom@...> ...
3017
Olga King
olgaruns
Dec 12, 2012 3:16 pm
Blake, when will you guys post on the website the ticket distribution amongst wanna-be's? As in, how many each of us has, and how many people in each pool? ...
3018
bpwrlc@...
blakepwood
Dec 12, 2012 3:30 pm
That should be up later today. - Blake ... From: "Olga King" <olgav100@...> To: hr100@yahoogroups.com Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2012 8:16:02 AM ...
3019
ken gordon
kgordon18
Dec 12, 2012 4:36 pm
  Blake,   Will be wild looking at the odds. Looks like approx 1784 on the never started group. I think that is.05% per drawing or 1.75% chance per...
3020
Kari Fraser
karilynfraser
Dec 13, 2012 7:09 am
Hi Blake (and everyone), Before you get showered with questions by those of us who are trying to make sure our ticket allocation is accurate, can you please...
3021
bpwrlc@...
blakepwood
Dec 13, 2012 1:08 pm
Yes, you are correct.  The first-timers do not get an additional ticket for applying this year. n is the number of times you have previously applied and...
3022
Joe Lea
jdlea
Dec 13, 2012 1:42 pm
Didn't see any discussion of our odds yet. 638 tickets in the "Everyone Else" group. 70 slots... assuming drawn tickets are set aside... 1 ticket = 11.61% 2 =...
3023
Christopher Martin
christopherh...
Dec 13, 2012 2:27 pm
Joe, Realizing that my probability skills are extremely rusty and could stand correction by the more math capable on the list, I'm getting about a...
3024
Jeff List
jlist1
Dec 13, 2012 2:44 pm
Joe's odds are a little higher than I get at the higher ticket numbers. Below is what I get for all three lottery pools. I followed more or less the...
3025
Wood, Blake P
bwood@...
Dec 13, 2012 2:53 pm
Hardrock runners - A list of the number of tickets each applicant has in Sunday's Hardrock Hundred lottery has been put online at...
3026
Joe Lea
jdlea
Dec 13, 2012 3:01 pm
Ah, I took a glass half full view and summed the probability that I would get in on each pull, which was 46.45% for my 4 tickets in the everyone else category....
3027
Crone, Brian Keith
bcrone@...
Dec 13, 2012 3:04 pm
The problem is that when you have a draw where people can have more than one ticket the math is not so simple. Suppose there are 1000 tickets in the pot and...
3028
Tom Stockton
jemezur
Dec 13, 2012 3:07 pm
Isn't this a hypergeometric distribution? So in Excel: =HYPGEOMDIST(1,70,4,658) Tom -- Tom Stockton (505) 660-8591 [Non-text portions of this message have been...
3029
Olga King
olgaruns
Dec 13, 2012 3:07 pm
Easier to think the chance is 50%. You either get in - or you won't. Deep breaths until then. Olga ... [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]...
3030
Chris Twiggs
twiggsc
Dec 13, 2012 3:28 pm
Anyone know if all ultrarunners are statistics junkies or just Hardrockers? I am amazed at the math, guys! I take more of a sports fan point of view to the...
3031
Tom Stockton
jemezur
Dec 13, 2012 3:35 pm
So in Excel: =HYPGEOMDIST(1,70,4,658) = 30% where 70 is the number of spots 4 is the number of tickets 658 is the number of tickets in the lottery 1 ticket:...
3032
Deb's Gmail
mtnrunner02
Dec 13, 2012 4:06 pm
every year, in Los Alamos, (home of the Hardrock Lottery brain trust), it's been sort of traditional to get together around the lottery time for a party of...
3033
Jeff List
jlist1
Dec 13, 2012 5:52 pm
This is obviously just nervous thumb twiddling before the lottery, as random chance can be very cruel or very kind.  But one possible way to evaluate the...
3034
Joe Lea
jdlea
Dec 13, 2012 6:01 pm
So, we can fix my numbers by simply adding 4 more slots to the Everyone Else group. All in favor...? joe lea chapel hill, nc ... [Non-text portions of this...
3035
Scott Brockmeier
cogitonc
Dec 13, 2012 7:07 pm
Hilarious, Deb! You are too creative. Did Drew enter HRH this year? I don't know his last name and I'm too lazy to page through for Drew's from TX. I also...
3036
thebeave7
Dec 13, 2012 7:20 pm
Interesting tid bit for those of us in the "First Timers" lottery. The top 26 ticket holders in that lottery have 641 tickets or 35.6% of that entire lottery....
3037
mariohiawatha
Dec 13, 2012 9:30 pm
In the ticket allocation list, it mentions service tickets. I see no mention of service tickets and how they are earned or allocated in the Lottery Process...
3038
Scott Brockmeier
cogitonc
Dec 13, 2012 10:42 pm
Mario, The service requirements are doing both of the two days of trail work scheduled every year in the two weeks before the race, or captaining an aid...
3039
Shinsuke Isomura
arumosi@...
Dec 14, 2012 12:54 am
Hello Hardrockers and future Hardrockers, First I'm sorry I can speak only cheap English. Also I know my probability skill is rusty. Hypergeometric is pretty...
3040
Chris Twiggs
twiggsc
Dec 14, 2012 1:33 am
I'm showing this thread to every student who tells me they won't need math when they graduate. Sent from my iPhone...
