Joe's odds are a little higher than I get at the higher ticket numbers. Below is what I get for all three lottery pools. I followed more or less the...
3025
Wood, Blake P
bwood@...
Dec 13, 2012 2:53 pm
Hardrock runners - A list of the number of tickets each applicant has in Sunday's Hardrock Hundred lottery has been put online at...
3026
Joe Lea
jdlea
Dec 13, 2012 3:01 pm
Ah, I took a glass half full view and summed the probability that I would get in on each pull, which was 46.45% for my 4 tickets in the everyone else category....
3027
Crone, Brian Keith
bcrone@...
Dec 13, 2012 3:04 pm
The problem is that when you have a draw where people can have more than one ticket the math is not so simple. Suppose there are 1000 tickets in the pot and...
3028
Tom Stockton
jemezur
Dec 13, 2012 3:07 pm
Isn't this a hypergeometric distribution? So in Excel: =HYPGEOMDIST(1,70,4,658) Tom -- Tom Stockton (505) 660-8591 [Non-text portions of this message have been...
3029
Olga King
olgaruns
Dec 13, 2012 3:07 pm
Easier to think the chance is 50%. You either get in - or you won't. Deep breaths until then. Olga ... [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]...
3030
Chris Twiggs
twiggsc
Dec 13, 2012 3:28 pm
Anyone know if all ultrarunners are statistics junkies or just Hardrockers? I am amazed at the math, guys! I take more of a sports fan point of view to the...
3031
Tom Stockton
jemezur
Dec 13, 2012 3:35 pm
So in Excel: =HYPGEOMDIST(1,70,4,658) = 30% where 70 is the number of spots 4 is the number of tickets 658 is the number of tickets in the lottery 1 ticket:...
3032
Deb's Gmail
mtnrunner02
Dec 13, 2012 4:06 pm
every year, in Los Alamos, (home of the Hardrock Lottery brain trust), it's been sort of traditional to get together around the lottery time for a party of...
3033
Jeff List
jlist1
Dec 13, 2012 5:52 pm
This is obviously just nervous thumb twiddling before the lottery, as random chance can be very cruel or very kind.  But one possible way to evaluate the...
3034
Joe Lea
jdlea
Dec 13, 2012 6:01 pm
So, we can fix my numbers by simply adding 4 more slots to the Everyone Else group. All in favor...? joe lea chapel hill, nc ... [Non-text portions of this...
3035
Scott Brockmeier
cogitonc
Dec 13, 2012 7:07 pm
Hilarious, Deb! You are too creative. Did Drew enter HRH this year? I don't know his last name and I'm too lazy to page through for Drew's from TX. I also...
3036
thebeave7
Dec 13, 2012 7:20 pm
Interesting tid bit for those of us in the "First Timers" lottery. The top 26 ticket holders in that lottery have 641 tickets or 35.6% of that entire lottery....
3037
mariohiawatha
Dec 13, 2012 9:30 pm
In the ticket allocation list, it mentions service tickets. I see no mention of service tickets and how they are earned or allocated in the Lottery Process...
3038
Scott Brockmeier
cogitonc
Dec 13, 2012 10:42 pm
Mario, The service requirements are doing both of the two days of trail work scheduled every year in the two weeks before the race, or captaining an aid...
3039
Shinsuke Isomura
arumosi@...
Dec 14, 2012 12:54 am
Hello Hardrockers and future Hardrockers, First I'm sorry I can speak only cheap English. Also I know my probability skill is rusty. Hypergeometric is pretty...
3040
Chris Twiggs
twiggsc
Dec 14, 2012 1:33 am
I'm showing this thread to every student who tells me they won't need math when they graduate. Sent from my iPhone...
3041
Tom Stockton
jemezur
Dec 14, 2012 1:55 am
Shinsuke, I see. So it looks like a negative hypergeometric then? Tom ... -- Tom Stockton (505) 660-8591 [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]...
3042
bpwrlc@...
blakepwood
Dec 14, 2012 3:17 am
Here are the odds I calculate by running a million monte carlo lotteries for the "never-started" lottery. I'll calculate the others soon. 1:   2.2% ...
3043
bpwrlc@...
blakepwood
Dec 14, 2012 3:20 am
Drew Meyer did indeed enter. He's been in contact with me and is now in the ticket spreadsheet. - Blake ... From: "Scott Brockmeier"...
3044
Scott Brockmeier
cogitonc
Dec 14, 2012 3:52 am
Darn it, didn't mean for that one to go to the list. Scott ... [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]...
3045
Mike Dobies
traildog100
Dec 14, 2012 6:07 am
Plugging all the lottery info into my lottery spreadsheet: Vets 5 66.2% 6 72.9% 7 78.4% 8 82.7% 9 86.2% 10 89.1% 11 91.3% 12 93.1% 13 94.6% 14 95.7% 16 97.4% ...
3046
Deb
mtnrunner02
Dec 14, 2012 6:23 am
Can I go home now? My brain is full.... Sent from my iPad...
3047
kapt@...
keithfrates
Dec 14, 2012 6:43 am
Huh…? Sounds like we might need a 4th lottery category - the Mensa Division, where n = your IQ. My odds are clearly better in the veterans drawing... Much...
3048
bogdand74
Dec 14, 2012 7:06 pm
I was talking to a friend ... no, not about of the upcoming end of the world ... we were talking about HRH100 lottery ... and i realized the definition of the...
3049
Brian Ricketts
brickett54
Dec 14, 2012 10:42 pm
I'm sure this has already been addressed somewhere, so I apologize in advance. If I have never started HR and am applying for the 4th consecutive year, should...
3050
Brian Ricketts
brickett54
Dec 14, 2012 10:50 pm
Looks like the current year doesn't count, so I receive credit only for my 3 previous attempts to get in. Thus, i have 8 tickets instead of 16. This makes my...
3051
Christopher Martin
christopherh...
Dec 15, 2012 1:01 am
Oh, we'll make fun of you all right, Mr. 16 Tickets. Good luck, anyway. ;^) And thanks to everyone (including Jeff "Live Low, Train...Still Kind of Low"...
3052
Holdaway, Dale (D.L.)
daleholdaway
Dec 15, 2012 8:14 pm
Are the lottery results available anywhere? I haven't been able to see any Twitter feeds. Dale...
3053
hardrock100@...
Dec 15, 2012 8:17 pm
Hi Dale. The lottery is tomorrow starting at about 10 or 10:30 am. We will. also post the results on our website. Dale Garland, RD HRH Sent via BlackBerry by...
