Reporter, Banja Luka, Republika Srpska
Issue 131, October 25, 2000

On the eve of local elections in the southern Serbian province

“Balkania” with loose borders?

Western analysts claim that the syntagma “FRY” from Resolution 1244 does not
have to be strictly adhered to and that Kosovo will be a part of any form of
state alliance between Serbia and Montenegro regardless of the official name
of that alliance

By VLADIMIR RADOMIROVIC

Apparently the Kosovo Albanians are the party most disappointed by the
results of federal and presidential elections and the change in the
government in Belgrade. For them the defeat of Slobodan Milosevic means
bidding a final farewell to dreams of independence for the southern Serbian
province and the loss of the support of the most powerful members of the
international community which they enjoyed thanks to their rough treatment
during the past decade at the hands of the Milosevic regime.

Machine gun: Even though Albanian politicians and media had been acting in
the days preceding October 5 as if events in Serbia had nothing to do with
them (since they were taking place in “an enemy country”, as one senior
official of Hashim Thaci’s Democratic Party of Kosovo observed), a few days
later the first reactions began to arrive. Primarily negative ones. For the
majority of Albanian leaders, Vojislav Kostunica does not present a step
forward in comparison with Slobodan Milosevic; the new president of the
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is even described as a much greater danger
for the Albanians and several Pristina dailies generously printed a
photograph of Vojislav Kostunica with a machine gun in his hand taken in
1998 in the north of Kosovo.

There are, however, more sober opinions. For example, the former president
of the Kosovo league of communists, Mahmut Bakali, in a conversation with
analysts of the International Crisis Group, stated that only “superficial
thinkers” believe that things would be better in Kosovo had Milosevic
remained in power. “Serious Albanian political thinkers know that it will be
easier for the world and for the Kosovo Albanians to resolve issues of
importance for Kosovo with a democratic Serbia than with Milosevic,” says
Bakali.

On the other hand, one of the leading Albanian political analysts, the
editor in chief of the Pristina daily paper “Koha Ditore” Baton Hadziju,
claims that Serbia is still far from democracy and opportunity for
negotiations with the Albanians. “There will be no negotiations until all
Albanians are released from Serbian prisons and war criminals are in The
Hague. Serbian society must face responsibility for everything that was done
in Kosovo, it must purge itself and only then perhaps can some kind of
negotiations on the final status of Kosovo take place,” concludes Hadziju.

“Return 2001”: The status of Kosovo, according to Resolution 1244 of the
United Nations Security Council from June of last year, can only be sought
within the framework of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. This resolution,
based on the unsigned agreement from Rambouillet and the conclusions of the
ministers of foreign affairs of the Group of Eight (the seven most developed
industrial countries of the world and Russia) from May of 1999, talks about
the education of a transitional administration “under which the people of
Kosovo can enjoy substantial autonomy within the framework of the Federal
Republic of Yugoslavia”. Another of the tasks of this administration is to
supervise the development of “transitional democratic self-governing
institutions”, while at the same time “fully taking into account the
sovereignty and territorial integrity of FRY and other countries in the
region”.

Starting with his very first statements, the new president of Yugoslavia
emphasized that he would advocate the full implementation of Resolution
1244, especially those parts of it which were yet unfulfilled. This means
“the return of all refugees” (concretely, the Serbs who were forced to flee
their homes last summer) and the return of Yugoslav security forces.
Although statements from the ranks of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia
have suggested that up to a thousand soldiers and policemen will return to
Kosovo by the end of the year, it is not likely that this will occur so
quickly. KFOR command (that is, NATO) has the final word on the matter and
it will not permit forces under Belgrade’s command to return before it is
certain that it will not have to reinforce its own forces in order to
protect the Yugoslav troops and policemen. Consequently, the Yugoslav Army
and Ministry of Internal Affairs operation dubbed “Return 2000” which was
presented on the eve of the elections will have to be renamed to “Return
2001” under the best of circumstances.

In two to three years: As far as “substantial autonomy” is concerned, the
head of the UN administration in Kosovo (UNMIK), Frenchman Bernard Kouchner,
who has been in this position for the past 15 months, is working on giving
the southern Serbian province the same rights which it had according to the
Constitution of 1974. (Vojislav Kostunica was dismissed from the Faculty of
Law in Belgrade in the 1970’s for his opposition to this constitution.)
Kouchner answered the frequent questions of the Albanian leaders and people
on independence by saying that the issue of independence does not fall under
his jurisdiction and that his task is to create conditions for autonomy
within the framework of Yugoslavia. Western analysts claim that the syntagma
“FRY” from Resolution 1244 does not have to be strictly adhered to and that
Kosovo will be a part of any form of state alliance between Serbia and
Montenegro regardless of the official name of that alliance. These analysts
are also of the opinion that a significant role in any sort of negotiations
on the final status of Kosovo will be played by the leader of the Serbs from
the north of Kosovo, Oliver Ivanovic, who survived attacks by both the
Milosevic regime and extremist Albanian politicians to emerge as the
strongest political figure among the Kosovo Serbs.

“The issue of the final status of Kosovo should not be considered for
strategic reasons in the near future,” Ivanovic tells “Reporter”. “Only when
the situation stabilizes in the mother country and relations with Montenegro
are resolved can the issue of Kosovo be addressed. Talks on the subject
could begin in the first half of next year and a final solution can be
achieved within two to three years later.”

Ivanovic claims that the Albanians are confused by developments in Serbia
and that they now regret not having voted for Milosevic. They are now in a
hurry to have the transitional administration call provincial elections as
soon as possible. After that it would be possible for them to adopt a new
constitution and declare independence. I believe that the international
community will have the sense not to allow this to occur.”

Leaders: The Kosovo Albanians are faced with local elections this Saturday
at which they will see which of the two strongest political parties will
carry the day. The first is the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo (LDK) of
Ibrahim Rugova, while the other is the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) of
Kosovo Liberation Army leader Hashim Thaci. According to observer
assessments, there is no clear favorite in these elections but it is
nevertheless expected that the LDK will win in the majority of
municipalities while the PDK may win office in Kosovska Mitrovica, for
example. Local elections will show in what political direction the Albanians
are going, that is, who might represent them next year in the event of
initial talks with Belgrade. Although the battle is between Rugova and
Thaci, Western analysts believe that neither of the two is the right man for
negotiations; instead, they opt for Veton Surroi, the editor of “Koha
Ditore”. Surroi, like the “Kosovo Mandela”, Adem Demaci, advocates
“Balkania”, a loose alliance of independent states, an idea which of late
has not been a stranger to Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic, either.
Something similar was proposed in a letter to UN secretary general Kofi
Annan by his special envoy for the Balkans, Carl Bildt. This Swedish
politician believes that the best solution for the future of FRY would be
some sort of alliance of three republics - Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo,
with Kosovo becoming a republic within a period of two to three years after
local elections. Bildt, like all relevant world politicians, rejects the
idea of independence for Kosovo because it is opposed by other Balkan
countries, first and foremost, by Macedonia (which would be faced with an
Albanian revolt in the west of the country) and Bosnia and Herzegovina
(since Republika Srpska might also seek independence on the basis of a
Kosovo precedent).

Here comes Ogi: Even though Bernard Kouchner has proposed that talks on the
status of Kosovo between the international administration and the new
government in Belgrade begin as early as November 24 at the summit of the EU
and the Balkan countries in Zagreb, it is unlikely that this will occur.
Vojislav Kostunica and the representatives of the Democratic Opposition of
Serbia will probably wait for the end of the year. That’s when Kouchner is
due to leave the position of UNMIK head and to move to the job of UN
commissioner for refugees. It is believed that the strongest candidate for
his replacement is the current president of the Swiss confederation, Adolf
Ogi, who warmly welcomed Vojislav Kostunica in Geneva last week upon his
return from the EU summit in Biarritz.

Translated by S. Lazovic (Oct. 27, 2000)

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