>From the Wall Street Journal:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.In
Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates'
in 2010
Excerpt:

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts,
he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will
provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough,
he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government
and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a
civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and
foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian
Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will
be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to
Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will
be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada
will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North
American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or
China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
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I've caught the Twitter bug, partly because it's a very interesting data set
and I'm analyzing it.
See http://nickarnett.net for that stuff.

I'm at http://twitter.com/nick_arnett

Any other Brinellers tweeting these days?

Nick
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Original Message:
-----------------
From: Nick Arnett narnett@...
Date: Fri, 2 Jan 2009 14:17:07 -0800
To: brin-l@...
Subject: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?


>From the Wall Street Journal:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

>As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
>In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America
>'Disintegrates' in 2010

I read this a few weeks ago and got a good chuckle out of it.  It shows
than Americans aren't the only ones who can be clueless about how things
work in other countries. :-)

Dan M.



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At 04:18 PM Friday 1/2/2009, Nick Arnett wrote:
>I've caught the Twitter bug, partly because it's a very interesting data set
>and I'm analyzing it.
>See http://nickarnett.net for that stuff.
>
>I'm at http://twitter.com/nick_arnett
>
>Any other Brinellers tweeting these days?
>
>Nick


Please forgive me if this is seems an ignorant question, but my
impression has been that Twitter is primarily useful for folks who
are on their "smart" phones texting most of the day, rather than
those of us whose primary on-line access is from our desktops . . .

Right?  Wrong?  Totally stupid?


. . . ronn!  :)



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On Fri, Jan 2, 2009 at 7:54 PM, Ronn! Blankenship <
ronn_blankenship@...> wrote:
>
>
> Please forgive me if this is seems an ignorant question, but my
> impression has been that Twitter is primarily useful for folks who
> are on their "smart" phones texting most of the day, rather than
> those of us whose primary on-line access is from our desktops . . .
>
> Right?  Wrong?  Totally stupid?


Not stupid, but not right.  You don't have to use a phone at all to use
Twitter.  In fact, it took me a while to figure out how to get anything on
my phone (which may have been stupid).  Twitter is micro-blogging.

Here's my take on what it really is good at, in terms of productivity:

http://www.nickarnett.net/2008/12/31/twitter-massively-parallel-self-organizatio\
n-of-points-of-view/

Nick
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Dan M. wrote:
>
>> As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
>> In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America
>> 'Disintegrates' in 2010
>
> I read this a few weeks ago and got a good chuckle out of it.  It shows
> than Americans aren't the only ones who can be clueless about how things
> work in other countries. :-)
>
Maybe we could work around a Big Bet about which is the next
country that will disintegrate. Russia? Canada? USA? China? Brazil?
India? Australia? South Africa?

I bet on China, but Bolivia came close to it a few months ago.

Alberto Monteiro


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Right. As everyone knows, Mexico is a great power that is poised to
take over the entire Southern tier of the United States. And those
damned Canadians have been quietly biding their time since the
American revolution, lying in wait for just the right moment to
arrive. And the European Union is so blatantly an effort to organize
Europe for a take-over of the United States that it's a wonder no
one's mentioned it before...

Clearly, the only solution is for the US to mount a massive attack on
all the countries listed in the article at once.
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I'm no twitter as http://twitter.com/dland Nick has been kind enough
to mention me several times in his musings on Twitter.
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On Sat, 3 Jan 2009, David Land wrote:

> I'm no twitter as http://twitter.com/dland Nick has been kind enough
> to mention me several times in his musings on Twitter.

OK, that one looks somewhat more interesting than some of the Tweets I see
dumped to LiveJournal.

Then again, the less interesting things are in response to other Tweets,
and the person Tweeting the most is engaged in discussions with other
folks.

 	 Julia

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Julia,

> OK, that one looks somewhat more interesting than some of the Tweets I see
> dumped to LiveJournal.

Thank you (if you're referring to my twitter feed). I try to remember
that the people who are following me (there are a little under a
hundred, with some falling off and new ones replacing them over time)
are an audience, so I write with them in mind.

> Then again, the less interesting things are in response to other Tweets,
> and the person Tweeting the most is engaged in discussions with other
> folks.

In my experience, the least interesting tweeple are the ones who use
twitter as a kind of public instant message with their friends. Every
message is a reply to someone else, and they often look something
like:

@boogerbrain *Yawn*
@mesopotamia That's what she said!
@fooboo Was that thing actually _on_ your plate?
@noobee If you say so, but actually, I like em crunchy.

I wonder if these people have anything at all to say on their own...

There is a hierarchy of engagement on Twitter in which following is
worth one "point", replying is worth more -- maybe two to five
"points", and retweeting is maybe double that again. I don't think
I've been retweeted. Not bleeding edge enough, I guess.
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Paul Saffo:

"DISCOVERY (OR CREATION) OF NON-HUMAN INTELLIGENCE CURES HUMANKIND'S
EXISTENTIAL LONELINESS"

The last two sentences are great:
" A world shared with super-intelligent robots is a hard thing to imagine.
If we are lucky, our new mind children will treat us as pets. If we are very
unlucky, they will treat us as food."

http://snipurl.com/9f313
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On Sat, 3 Jan 2009, David Land wrote:

> Julia,
>
>> OK, that one looks somewhat more interesting than some of the Tweets I see
>> dumped to LiveJournal.
>
> Thank you (if you're referring to my twitter feed). I try to remember
> that the people who are following me (there are a little under a
> hundred, with some falling off and new ones replacing them over time)
> are an audience, so I write with them in mind.
>
>> Then again, the less interesting things are in response to other Tweets,
>> and the person Tweeting the most is engaged in discussions with other
>> folks.
>
> In my experience, the least interesting tweeple are the ones who use
> twitter as a kind of public instant message with their friends. Every
> message is a reply to someone else, and they often look something
> like:
>
> @boogerbrain *Yawn*
> @mesopotamia That's what she said!
> @fooboo Was that thing actually _on_ your plate?
> @noobee If you say so, but actually, I like em crunchy.

That's what the most prolific feed I see is, mostly.  Except a little more
interesting than that.  It lends a cheerful surreality to my day, so I
don't complain.  And I get information about the guy's life that I
wouldn't otherwise.

> I wonder if these people have anything at all to say on their own...

That one does, actually.  His LJ is about half LoudTwitter and half actual
posts with real information, and it's usually information I'm glad to
have.  (Even if it's bad stuff, I like to know what's going on with
folks.)

> There is a hierarchy of engagement on Twitter in which following is
> worth one "point", replying is worth more -- maybe two to five
> "points", and retweeting is maybe double that again. I don't think
> I've been retweeted. Not bleeding edge enough, I guess.

I know someone who has a Twitter account just so's he can send stuff to
his to-do list, which is on a website which won't take text messages, but
will accept Tweets and convert them into to-do items.  He has several
people following him, and the fact of that creeps him out just a little.
(I think they just need the clue that he's not intending to interact with
anyone there.)

 	 Julia

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At 02:20 PM Saturday 1/3/2009, David Land wrote:

>In my experience, the least interesting tweeple


I suppose calling them "twits" is frowned upon . . .


>are the ones who use
>twitter as a kind of public instant message with their friends. Every
>message is a reply to someone else, and they often look something
>like:
>
>@boogerbrain *Yawn*
>@mesopotamia That's what she said!
>@fooboo Was that thing actually _on_ your plate?
>@noobee If you say so, but actually, I like em crunchy.
>
>I wonder if these people have anything at all to say on their own...


The conversation in the Niven chat room (in session now) is rather
more intelligent than the above . . .


. . . ronn!  :)



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David Land wrote:
>
> Right. As everyone knows, Mexico is a great power that is poised to
> take over the entire Southern tier of the United States. And those
> damned Canadians have been quietly biding their time since the
> American revolution, lying in wait for just the right moment to
> arrive. And the European Union is so blatantly an effort to organize
> Europe for a take-over of the United States that it's a wonder no
> one's mentioned it before...
>
> Clearly, the only solution is for the US to mount a massive attack on
> all the countries listed in the article at once.
>
It's surprising that not a single piece of the future-former-USA went
to Israel. Those conspiracy theorists are getting unimaginative.

Alberto Monteiro
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Alberto
>
> >
> > Clearly, the only solution is for the US to mount a massive attack on
> > all the countries listed in the article at once.
> >
> It's surprising that not a single piece of the future-former-USA went
> to Israel. Those conspiracy theorists are getting unimaginative.
>

Sheesh, don't you know?   Israel _controls_ all those countries.

Doug
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> -----Original Message-----
> From: brin-l-bounces@... [mailto:brin-l-bounces@...] On
> Behalf Of Doug Pensinger
> Sent: Saturday, January 03, 2009 5:17 PM
> To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion
> Subject: Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?
>
>  Alberto
> >
> > >
> > > Clearly, the only solution is for the US to mount a massive attack on
> > > all the countries listed in the article at once.
> > >
> > It's surprising that not a single piece of the future-former-USA went
> > to Israel. Those conspiracy theorists are getting unimaginative.
> >
>
> Sheesh, don't you know?   Israel _controls_ all those countries.
>

Switching the conversation to something not as much fun, I've been wondering
if Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran have found a "heads I win, tails you lose"
proposition.

The first two attack Israel with rockets located in the middle of civilians.
If Israel doesn't respond, they up the attacks.  If it does, it kills lots
of civilians and Hamas and Hezbollah gain in popularity.  Iran is setting
Israel up so it (or the US which is doubtful) will have to bomb its nuclear
facility or face an enemy with the ability to wipe out Israel and virtually
all of its population in 15 minutes.  If Israel does bomb, it won't know if
it got all of the facilities, or if there is a buried one.

Plus, demographics favor the Palestinians in the long run.  Further, since
Arabs control oil, there is a great desire to please Arabs by many world
powers (the UN tacit approval of the genocide in the Sudan is a good example
of this), other countries will have to act against their own self interests
to worry about Israel.

So, can anyone argue me out of this pessimistic viewpoint?  I honestly hope
so, even though I'll argue hard for this point....it's one argument I'd love
to lose.

Dan M.


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Dan M wrote:
>
>
> So, can anyone argue me out of this pessimistic viewpoint?  I honestly hope
> so, even though I'll argue hard for this point....it's one argument I'd
> love
> to lose.


Well, note that there has never been the kind of tacit support for Israel
from moderate Arab states such as Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia as there is
in this particular conflict.  The Sunnis are probably more fearful of
Shia/Iranian ascendancy than they are of a stable Jewish state.

I don't know if it will happen, but if the current incursion takes control
of the Gaza/Egypt border and allows wounded Palestinians (that Hamas is not
allowing to cross) to get to the emergency facilities that have been set up
there, they might gain a little popular support.  Of course the idea is to
weaken Hamas enough so that more moderate factions can take charge.  I'm
sure that there are more than a few members of Fatah that aren't too unhappy
with the idea.

In any case, what the nut case running Iran would like to see is world war
3, and I'm not even sure that he would mind if Iran itself was cauterized as
a result.

Doug
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At 05:54 PM Saturday 1/3/2009, Dan M wrote:


> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: brin-l-bounces@... [mailto:brin-l-bounces@...] On
> > Behalf Of Doug Pensinger
> > Sent: Saturday, January 03, 2009 5:17 PM
> > To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion
> > Subject: Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?
> >
> >  Alberto
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Clearly, the only solution is for the US to mount a massive attack on
> > > > all the countries listed in the article at once.
> > > >
> > > It's surprising that not a single piece of the future-former-USA went
> > > to Israel. Those conspiracy theorists are getting unimaginative.
> > >
> >
> > Sheesh, don't you know?   Israel _controls_ all those countries.
> >
>
>Switching the conversation to something not as much fun, I've been wondering
>if Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran have found a "heads I win, tails you lose"
>proposition.
>
>The first two attack Israel with rockets located in the middle of civilians.
>If Israel doesn't respond, they up the attacks.  If it does, it kills lots
>of civilians and Hamas and Hezbollah gain in popularity.  Iran is setting
>Israel up so it (or the US which is doubtful) will have to bomb its nuclear
>facility or face an enemy with the ability to wipe out Israel and virtually
>all of its population in 15 minutes.  If Israel does bomb, it won't know if
>it got all of the facilities, or if there is a buried one.
>
>Plus, demographics favor the Palestinians in the long run.  Further, since
>Arabs control oil, there is a great desire to please Arabs by many world
>powers (the UN tacit approval of the genocide in the Sudan is a good example
>of this), other countries will have to act against their own self interests
>to worry about Israel.
>
>So, can anyone argue me out of this pessimistic viewpoint?  I honestly hope
>so, even though I'll argue hard for this point....it's one argument I'd love
>to lose.
>
>Dan M.


Apparently the strategy works, as I've heard on the news when Gaza
citizens are interviewed they blame America as well as Israel for
civilian deaths rather than Hamas for launching rockets from civilian
neighborhoods.


. . . ronn!  :)



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On 04/01/2009, at 10:54 AM, Dan M wrote:
> Plus, demographics favor the Palestinians in the long run.  Further,
> since
> Arabs control oil, there is a great desire to please Arabs by many
> world
> powers (the UN tacit approval of the genocide in the Sudan is a good
> example
> of this),

No it's no - the UN and African Union have peace-keeping operations in
Darfur. They're underfunded and undereffective, but that's not "tacit
approval".

Charlie.
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Original Message:
-----------------
From: Charlie Bell charlie@...
Date: Sun, 4 Jan 2009 12:59:20 +1100
To: brin-l@...
Subject: Re: Israel to collapse in 25 years?



On 04/01/2009, at 10:54 AM, Dan M wrote:
> Plus, demographics favor the Palestinians in the long run.  Further,
> since
> Arabs control oil, there is a great desire to please Arabs by many
> world
> powers (the UN tacit approval of the genocide in the Sudan is a good
> example
> of this),

>No it's no - the UN and African Union have peace-keeping operations in
>Darfur. They're underfunded and undereffective, but that's not "tacit
>approval".

Oh, that's not what I meant.  I was thinking about things the UN voting the
Sudan on the Human Rights commission _while the genocide was going on_, the
UN publically chiding the United States for calling the genocide by it's
proper name and other actions that give a wink and a nod to the actions of
Sudan. It's akin to what happened with Serbicidia, where the Russians
allowed ineffective peacekeepers, but stopped any meaningful action.

Dan M.

Dan M.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/culture/2009/jan/04/financial-crisis-anxiety

[...]

"In times like these, everyone should have a book by their bedside to
reach for at three in the morning. If the Bible doesn't work for you,
Philip Tetlock's nicely oxymoronic volume Expert Political Judgment
might be an alternative. Tetlock's book is based on two decades of
research into 284 people who made their living "commenting or offering
advice on political and economic trends". He asked them simply to do
what they apparently did best: predict what would happen in the world
next in answer to specific questions. Would oil prices rise or fall,
would there be a boom or a bust, would we go to war? And so on. When
the study concluded, in 2003, Tetlock's experts had made 82,361
forecasts and the results were correlated with the facts as they had
turned out.
The experts were less accurate in their forecasts than a control group
of chimpanzees choosing entirely randomly would have been. Even
specialists in particular narrow fields were not significantly more
successful than reasonably informed laymen. "We reach the point of
diminishing marginal predictive returns for knowledge disconcertingly
quickly," Tetlock suggested. "In this age of academic
hyperspecialisation, there is no reason for supposing that
contributors to top journals - distinguished political scientists,
area study specialists, economists and so on - are any better than
attentive readers of the New York Times in 'reading' emerging
situations."

Further, the more certain the forecaster was, the more likely his
judgment would be awry, scientific proof that "the best lack all
conviction, while the worst are full of a passionate intensity"."

Alchemists Maru

--
William T Goodall
Mail : wtg@...
Web  : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk
Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/

“Babies are born every day without an iPod. We will get there.” - Adam
Sohn, the head of public relations for Microsoft’s Zune division.

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Charlie Bell wrote:
>
> No it's no - the UN and African Union have peace-keeping operations in
> Darfur. They're underfunded and undereffective, but that's not "tacit
> approval".
>
OTOH, I had already read that Africa would collapse due to the AIDS
pandemic, and it seems that it's happening right now.

Congo/Zaire, Guinea, Uganda, Sudan, Somalia, ZImbabwe... It seems
that civil wars are getting worse then when they funded by the CIA and
the KGB.

Alberto Monteiro
_______________________________________________
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> -----Original Message-----
> From: brin-l-bounces@... [mailto:brin-l-bounces@...] On
> Behalf Of Doug Pensinger
> Sent: Saturday, January 03, 2009 6:56 PM
> To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion
> Subject: Re: Israel to collapse in 25 years?
>
>  Dan M wrote:
> >
> >
> > So, can anyone argue me out of this pessimistic viewpoint?  I honestly
> hope
> > so, even though I'll argue hard for this point....it's one argument I'd
> > love
> > to lose.
>
>
> Well, note that there has never been the kind of tacit support for Israel
> from moderate Arab states such as Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia as there
> is
> in this particular conflict.  The Sunnis are probably more fearful of
> Shia/Iranian ascendancy than they are of a stable Jewish state.

The last statement you made is certainly true.  The first statement was true
when you made it, but it is no longer true.  The Arab countries have
condemned Israel's incursion into Gaza.

Israel needs to, at the very least, minimize the rocket attacks for their
actions to be considered successful.  There are still 40 rockets/day
launched towards Israel since Hamas ended the cease fire.  I do not see a
quick and easy conclusions to the ground incursion.

> I don't know if it will happen, but if the current incursion takes control
> of the Gaza/Egypt border and allows wounded Palestinians (that Hamas is
> not
> allowing to cross) to get to the emergency facilities that have been set
> up
> there, they might gain a little popular support.  Of course the idea is to
> weaken Hamas enough so that more moderate factions can take charge.  I'm
> sure that there are more than a few members of Fatah that aren't too
> unhappy
> with the idea.

I agree with this, but the politics on the ground indicate that Fatah had to
use the threat of violence to stop popular demonstrations on the West bank
in support of Hamas.  On the whole, it appears that the groups that are seen
to successfully oppose Israel gain among the Palestinians while those that
try to find peace lose, and are considered collaborators.  Given the
education system, this makes sense....because this is a reasonable position
for those who accept the lies taught in the Palestinian schools about the
Jews as truths.

The real trick is whether Israel can either weaken Hamas so it can be
defeated by Al Fatah, or if it can establish effective control of the
smuggling of rockets into Gaza in order to stop the attacks.  Recent news is
not sanguine with respect to the former.  Several Al Fatah members have been
executed in Gaza for "collaborating with Israel."  Others are under house
arrest.  There is no indication that Al Fatah is gaining in the Gaza, and
some evidence that it might be falling back in the West Bank.

The second point requires the Israeli army to inflict devastating damage on
Hamas's leadership and fighters while minimizing civilian casualties.
Unlike normal warfare, Hamas gains when the people it governs are hurt and
killed.  Thus, they are highly motivated to make sure that civilians
(especially children) are killed by Israel.  Given the rabbit warren nature
of Gaza cities, it will be very hard for Israel to kill Hamas and not have a
significant incident of civilian deaths.

We are now seeing massive demonstrations in Europe, mostly ethnic based.
This puts tremendous pressure on the European governments to support a cease
fire that will leave Hamas intact, and able to resume rocket attacks on
Israel at will (e.g. wait a couple of weeks or months and then restart the
attacks).  If these demonstrations increase, my feel is that there is
minimal European public support for Israel, and that the general tendency is
to support quick solutions that, in succession, will gradually weaken Israel
over the next years.  For, if rocket attacks become the new norm, I feel
that they will increase in sophistication and damage as better Iranian arms
are smuggled into Gaza.


> In any case, what the nut case running Iran would like to see is world war
> 3, and I'm not even sure that he would mind if Iran itself was cauterized
> as a result.

That's a major fear of mine too.  I recall how, in the Iran-Iraq war, Iran
sent human wave attacks against Iraq, with hundreds of thousands of
minimally armed civilians sent to overwhelm the much better armed Iraqis by
sheer numbers.  IIRC, children were included in these attacks.  If the Grand
Ayatollah who really runs the country sees the final battle at the end of
time at hand, he might feel called to start it by attacking the Zionistic
entity which is controlling the world through its evil actions.

Dan M.

Dan M.

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> -----Original Message-----
> From: brin-l-bounces@... [mailto:brin-l-bounces@...] On
> Behalf Of William T Goodall
> Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2009 6:35 AM
> To: Brin-L
> Subject: Experts
>
> http://www.guardian.co.uk/culture/2009/jan/04/financial-crisis-anxiety
>
> [...]
>
> "In times like these, everyone should have a book by their bedside to
> reach for at three in the morning. If the Bible doesn't work for you,
> Philip Tetlock's nicely oxymoronic volume Expert Political Judgment
> might be an alternative. Tetlock's book is based on two decades of
> research into 284 people who made their living "commenting or offering
> advice on political and economic trends". He asked them simply to do
> what they apparently did best: predict what would happen in the world
> next in answer to specific questions. Would oil prices rise or fall,
> would there be a boom or a bust, would we go to war? And so on. When
> the study concluded, in 2003, Tetlock's experts had made 82,361
> forecasts and the results were correlated with the facts as they had
> turned out.

I don't differ with Tetlock's essential findings: the pronouncements of most
professional pundits in the areas of economics or geopolitics are less than
worthless.  I've seen separate documentation that, if you use a broker, you
will, on average, do slightly worse than simply investing in a broad based
index fund.

However, having said that, I think that the implications of his work might
lead one to overstate the case; to state that there is no worth in studying
or trying to understand finance or geopolitics.  The former has been argued
extensively here, so let me go to the latter.

We know, for example, that the Bush White house had total disdain for the
experts in nation building.  After the successful defeat of the Iraq army,
the provisional authority dismissed the experts in the field, and went there
own way, relying on totally unproven techniques.  The results were a
disaster.

In 2006, the US put its COIN expert in charge of the Iraq war.  Since then,
the US has done much better.  Thus, we have a case were the experts were
clearly in the right.

Thus, we seem to have a good example of taking expertise with a grain of
salt, instead of totally disdaining them.

Dan M.


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I decided to resubscribe to the Culture mailing list (after Comcast took
over my Roadrunner account I was automatically unsubscribed) partially
because things are now slowing down from my busiest year ever and I will
probably have free time.

I followed the FAQ directions to send a message with subscribe culture in
the body to listmanager@....  It seemed to go through, but I have
received no culture email in a day, and my test message failed.  Does anyone
have any suggestions as to what I did wrong?

Dan M.

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On Jan 2, 2009, at 8:35 PM, dsummersminet@... wrote:

>> From the Wall Street Journal:
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html
>
>> As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of
>> U.S.
>> In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America
>> 'Disintegrates' in 2010
>
> I read this a few weeks ago and got a good chuckle out of it.  It
> shows
> than Americans aren't the only ones who can be clueless about how
> things
> work in other countries. :-)
>
> Dan M.

Well, one element of it is almost certainly true -- the USA that we'll
be living in in 2010 will not be the USA as we know it. If we continue
with "business as usual", the mostly-completed process of running the
country into the ground will very likely reach a point of no return
before then.  I'm betting there will be some outside-the-box thinking
during this next administration that will change course to some degree
-- the big question is whether it will be enough of a course change
soon enough to avoid the hard landing.

"Listen, when you get home tonight, you're gonna be confronted by the
instinct to drink a lot. Trust that instinct. Manage the pain. Don't
try to be a hero." -- Toby Ziegler


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At 07:26 PM Sunday 1/4/2009, Dan M wrote:
>I decided to resubscribe to the Culture mailing list (after Comcast took
>over my Roadrunner account I was automatically unsubscribed) partially
>because things are now slowing down from my busiest year ever and I will
>probably have free time.
>
>I followed the FAQ directions to send a message with subscribe culture in
>the body to listmanager@....  It seemed to go through, but I have
>received no culture email in a day, and my test message failed.  Does anyone
>have any suggestions as to what I did wrong?
>
>Dan M.


Nope.  Every now and then I subscribe to that list and then sometime
later seem to have been dropped.  I certainly hope the Minds in the
future work better than the one which hosts that list . . . ;)

IIRC Charlie Bell has something to do with that list, and is on this
list?  Hello?  Help?


. . . ronn!  :)



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> -----Original Message-----
> From: brin-l-bounces@... [mailto:brin-l-bounces@...] On
> Behalf Of Bruce Bostwick
> Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2009 7:49 PM
> To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion
> Subject: Re: Scouted: U.S. to collapse in next two years?
>
> On Jan 2, 2009, at 8:35 PM, dsummersminet@... wrote:
>
> >> From the Wall Street Journal:
> > http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html
> >
> >> As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of
> >> U.S.
> >> In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America
> >> 'Disintegrates' in 2010
> >
> > I read this a few weeks ago and got a good chuckle out of it.  It
> > shows
> > than Americans aren't the only ones who can be clueless about how
> > things
> > work in other countries. :-)
> >
> > Dan M.
>
> Well, one element of it is almost certainly true -- the USA that we'll
> be living in in 2010 will not be the USA as we know it. If we continue
> with "business as usual", the mostly-completed process of running the
> country into the ground will very likely reach a point of no return
> before then

Ah, I'd really like some hard data to support that hyperbola.  As messed up
as Bush was, by most measure, the US is far better off than most countries.
Take, for example, one I worry about the most: foreign debt as a percentage
of GDP.  It is now, by my rough calculations for 2008, at about 45% of GDP.
While I think this is bad, it's much better than Great Britain, where it
stands at 380%.

If you are over 40, you should remember how Japan was going to blow the US
out of the water in the '80s.  China is the new champ....only they are
finding their growth is sliding from 10% per year down to a far lower level
that folks are guessing at.  We know industrial output is down from last
year, so they have as much trouble with the trade imbalance as we do.

The US is far less densely populated than any other developed country, its
air and water suppliers are far less polluted than 40 years ago, and racism
has fallen to the point where we've been able to elect a black president.

And yet, you sing we're on the eve of destruction?

Dan M.

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> IIRC Charlie Bell has something to do with that list, and is on this
> list?  Hello?  Help?
>
> Yea, Charlie's the guy to talk to.  I could be wrong but I don't think that
there has been any list traffic for over a day, so you haven't missed
anything.
Doug
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Surely Canada & Australia are both far less densely populated than the
United States?

Regards,

Wayne Eddy

> The US is far less densely populated than any other developed country, its
> air and water suppliers are far less polluted than 40 years ago, and
> racism
> has fallen to the point where we've been able to elect a black president.
>
> And yet, you sing we're on the eve of destruction?
>
> Dan M.

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