New Straits Times
22 Aug 2008

Sept 16 will see the rise... or fall of Anwar
ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR

As Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim manoeuvres towards fulfilling his dream of
becoming prime minister, some wonder if his Sept 16 target is on
track, writes ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR

THERE are two dates that are important in Malaysian politics right
now. The first is Aug 26, when a by-election will determine whether
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will make it to Parliament after a decade of
absence.

The second, which depends on the de facto Parti Keadilan Rakyat leader
winning the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, is Anwar's self-imposed
Sept 16 deadline for Pakatan Rakyat to seize power from Barisan
Nasional.

Describing Pakatan Rakyat as a "government-in-waiting", Anwar declared
after the March 8 general election that the opposition coalition was
embarking on the road to Putrajaya.

He has since maintained that "we are still on track for Sept 16" and
boasting during his night campaign rallies in Permatang Pauh of the
events that will take place from the time he wins the by-election
right up to Pakatan ousting the Barisan Nasional government led by
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.
Sceptics may have long brushed aside such talk as a political tactic
to destabilise Abdullah's administration, but Anwar's followers
believe their leader.

The stage is set for the 61-year-old politician to reclaim the
constituency he held for four terms before his wife Datuk Seri Dr Wan
Azizah Wan Ismail took over.

Anwar is facing BN's candidate from Umno, Datuk Arif Shah Omar Shah,
52, and Angkatan Keadilan Insan Malaysia president Hanafi Hamat in a
contest few would bet against him winning.

"If Anwar wins, the chances are that more BN MPs will feel that he can
meet the Sept 16 deadline," says Professor James Chin of Monash
University. "Whether he can get more than 30 MPs to defect is another
matter."

With the result of the by-election a foregone conclusion by most
predictions, many are waiting to see what will happen next, as Anwar
has a sodomy charge looming over him.

Sept 16 is symbolic in that it was the date Malaysia was formed in
1963. Anwar's campaign to wrest power and form a new government is
essentially a promise that he will form a new Malaysia -- a pledge
evident even in Pakatan's Permatang Pauh by-election campaign slogan:
Merdeka.

However, political analysts say Anwar's chances of becoming prime
minister could run aground as he fights a charge of engaging in
unnatural sex with a 23-year-old former aide. His supporters are
worried he may not survive this time around; they fear he may be
convicted and his political career will come to an abrupt end.

Anwar's sodomy case is due for mention on Sept 10 and a trial may
start any time after that date. Going by Anwar's 1998 trial for
sodomy, which took a year, it is likely that this time around it will
run through 2008 and into next year.

And if the verdict is delivered some time next year, Anwar will have
to prepare for a possibility he may be convicted. If he is not prime
minister by the time he is convicted, his political career will be
over.

In short, Anwar must be prime minister by the time the court hands
down its verdict, which means he must go all-out now as this is his
one and only opportunity to be premier.

How might Anwar achieve this ambition? Pakatan Rakyat, comprising PKR,
DAP and Pas, controls 80 parliamentary seats while BN has 140, with
one seat held by an independent. The opposition alliance would need
another 30 seats to form the federal government.

Political sources say Pakatan is mulling three legal means to effect a
change of government:

One would be to call for an immediate no-confidence motion in
Parliament, which Pakatan unsuccessfully attempted in June. Such a
move could be blocked by the Speaker of Parliament if he deems the
matter as not being sufficiently urgent for immediate debate, as
happened in June.

Another way could be by filing a 14-day notice in Parliament for a
no-confidence motion to be debated, but this could mean the Sept 16
takeover date is not met as the present session of Parliament takes a
break on Sept 29, resuming only on Oct 13.

The third option would be to have all Pakatan MPs and crossover MPs
sign a document expressing no confidence in the government and
approaching the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to let him decide whether to
accept the new majority coalition in Parliament.

The pertinent question is whether there will be massive crossovers
from BN MPs. Until now, the only obvious potential turncoats have been
two MPs from the Sabah Progressive Party, although Opposition leaders
have indicated expectations that MPs from Sabah, Sarawak and the
peninsula might also jump ship.

"There are also MPs from Umno, MCA and also Gerakan," a senior PKR
leader has claimed.

Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak and Sabah BN leaders have
dismissed claims by PKR's Datuk Dr Jeffery Kitingan that 13 BN MPs
will switch camps if Anwar wins Permatang Pauh.

"There are no 'frogs' either in Sabah or Sarawak," Najib said in
Permatang Pauh.

Umno vice-president Muhyiddin Yassin, on a campaign mission in
Permatang Pauh, accused Kitingan of engaging in psychological warfare
to fish for votes and challenged him to reveal names instead of
tossing numbers.

Chin, however, says that if and when BN MPs defect, it will be done
quickly and en bloc. "It will not be done two or three at a time."

The pressure is on Anwar to fulfil his vow to realise his Sept 16 goal
or lose credibility.

Privately, Pas and DAP leaders remain doubtful that Anwar will be able
to muster sufficient support from defectors. Penang Chief Minister Lim
Guan Eng has warned that the DAP will not recognise crossovers if they
are enticed by material rewards, while there have been suggestions
from Pas that its president, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang, should be
prime minister if Pakatan comes to power.

The question, then, is whether DAP and Pas members want Anwar as prime
minister.

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