Let's hope the state is not too quick to actually start selling the general obligation bonds. At the very least, legislators should wait until there is actually a business plan for the 700-mile railroad, which is expected to cost around $43 billion.
Perhaps the plan could start with a realistic cost estimate of laying 700 miles of special track that can support trains travelling in excess of 200 mph. It is virtually assured that $43 billion will not be nearly enough to complete the project.
More likely, such a system would cost double that amount or more. It is expected to cost $6 billion to build a BART line just 16 miles from Fremont to San Jose.
Then the business plan might want to consider exactly the route of the train. Union Pacific Railroad has told the state's High-Speed Rail Authority it won't sell its rights-of-way. Does this mean another route will have to be chosen, or will eminent domain be used?
Next, the business plan will have to provide some realistic numbers regarding ridership. In far easier projections, BART came up short in its forecasts of ridership to SFO and to eastern Contra Costa County.
To be successful, a high-speed train system would have to carry tens of thousands of passengers on scores of trains every day.
To do so, it will have to compete with airfares and passenger cars. Fares on similar trains in Europe and Japan are higher than airfares along the Bay Area-Los Angeles area corridor.
Just how many trains will have to run to accommodate enough passengers to pay for the operating costs of the system, much less make a profit that could attract private investment?
Where will such investment come from without a solid business plan, or even with one?
Prop. 1A says bond proceeds may be used to provide only up to one-half of the total cost of construction of tracks and stations. Where is the rest of the money to come from?
Significant private investment seems highly unlikely as does getting billions of dollars in federal funding for a highly questionable high-speed rail system.
California has a huge budget deficit and a record high bonded indebtedness, which would increase by nearly $10 billion if the rail bonds are sold.
This state has far more pressing transportation needs, such as highway construction and maintenance, better metropolitan rail and bus service, and retrofitting bridges and overpasses.
Just because voters have authorized the sale of high-speed rail bonds does not require the state to sell them.
At the very least a credible business plan and commitment of matching private and federal funds should be obtained before any Prop. 1A bonds are sold.
------------------------------BayPointMike wrote:
A similar investment for the Toyota/GM NUMMI plant to build Prius cars in Fremont would make far more sense and there is no doubt the bonds would attract investors from Europe and Japan. The Toyota officers said recently they are interested in doing that but an State-backed bond would, no doubt, seal the deal.
Perhaps, after the 9.98 Billion are wasted and they come back to ask for $40 Billion more, we will be faced with the choice of sinking $40 Billion more or, admit our error and stop the waste. Of course, all the politicians that supported the bond will be long gone and nobody will remember their names.
High Speed Rail will be a "Poster Child" of the Economic Tsunami, during the Great Depression, it was the apocryphal story of people hired to shove dirt from one side of the road to the other, one half in one direction and the other half in the opposite direction.
Like so many others have said before, "we shall see!" Does anybody remember the East Bay Bridge went from $400 Million to $5.65 Billion in price? Will be surprised again? And, later, again? Is Alzheimer's affecting the middle age?
In recent days, both
I think it has very much undermined the whole question of John McCain's judgment. You know what most Americans I think realized is that you don't offer a job, let alone the vice presidency, to a person after one job interview. Even at McDonald's, you're interviewed three times before you get a job.
In a 
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