From: Law Sin Ling
31 October 2006
Government Approach To The Haze - Divination And Sales Pitch
Sg_Review

Weather prediction is by nature an iffy proposition. Global
meteorological agencies learned to present honest assessments with
broad disclaimers. They also mostly separate weather-telling from the
political agendas of the government.

That philosophy is not adhered to by Singapore's National Environment
Agency (NEA) when the annual haze season struck the region in early
September this year.

NEA reportedly qualified in September that "air quality is unlikely to
go into the unhealthy range" where the Pollutants Standards Index
(PSI) registers 100 or more.

Incidentally, Indonesia, from where the incendiary clearing of immense
hectares of plantation land has sprouted forth the choking smog, was
in close collaboration with Singapore on that occasion as a viable
venue for 'objectionable' conventions and protests which the Singapore
government disallowed on the soil of the island state.

Of particular importance was the fact that Indonesia, from where the
incendiary clearing of immense hectares of plantation land has
sprouted forth the choking smog, was in close collaboration with
Singapore on the occasion as a viable venue for 'objectionable'
conventions and protests which the Singapore government disallowed on
the soil of the island state.

By end-September when the delegates had largely dispersed, Singapore
learned suddenly that "the haze situation has worsened" in conjunction
with a disturbing increase in the number of people afflicted with
respiratory health complications.

In early October, NEA did the unthinkable - It proclaimed with iron
certainty that the monsoon rain in mid-October would ease the
situation, a bold prophecy hedged on the lightness of the rolling winds.

Even the Deputy Director of the government SingHealth Polyclinics
(under the Health Ministry) Dr Sally Ho got on the act to state that
"when the PSI has been going up, the number of cases actually went
down for cough and cold and asthma".

In another uncharacteristic move for a meteorological establishment,
NEA's head of Pollution Control Department Joseph Hui exclaimed
through some inexplicable perceptive powers a few short days later
that the PSI reading was unlikely to pass 100 (unhealthy level).

Barely 24-hours later, that latter (second) prophecy of the NEA was
burned off when the PSI rocketed to an amazing 150. NEA sought to hide
their ashen credibility by reiterating the first prophecy on the letup
of haze in mid-October, throwing in even more assurances that the
situation was coming to an end.

For good measures, NEA heralded its third divination, this time
through Chief Met Officer of the Meteorological Services Division Lam
Keng Gaik, that it "expect the situation to be far from comparable to
the 1997 event" where the PSI attained a stifling 226 thanks largely
to the global phenomenon of El-Nino.

Meanwhile, the first prophecy on a mid-October relief from the haze
crumpled to a disastrous end as mid-October leisurely came and went,
with no respite. The rain NEA promised did not materialise.

Then came more embarrassment for the Health Ministry with the news
report that the number of polyclinics patients with haze-related
conditions (like asthma) "was up by 600 during the first week of this
month (early-October) compared to the same period last month." This
was in stark contrast to the bubblier assessment from the Deputy
Director of the government SingHealth Polyclinics in early-October.

And when the intermittent torrent arrived a week before end-October,
NEA was emboldened to fall back on the odd habit of dispensing
prophecies, this time from the director-general of the Meteorological
Services Division Foong Chee Leong with the debatable claim that the
PSI would henceforth "generally" remain in the healthy range (below
50) as the predicted end-November monsoon near.

At the time of publication of this article in end-October, the general
PSI registered a mean value in excess of 50. NEA altered its prophecy
within 24-hours to state that the unpredictable wind would bring back
the haze, after all.

In the midst of the foggy drama, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew could
not contain himself to present his accolade to the Indonesian
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono for having "broken with the past"
to apologise for the haze, not that it solves anything.

Rejoicing over the improved air quality, or even the presidential
apology, is a sure formula for future regret. Not understanding the
moral will exacerbate the pain.

The effort of the implicated government institutions would have
supplied a hilarious dose of comic relief to a nation of unsmiling
people if not for the displayed determination of the government
agencies, with the NEA at the vanguard, to hurriedly play down the
intractable recurring trouble, even at the expense of making lunatic
prophecies.

A closer examination of the nonsensical soothsaying by the implicated
institutions reveals a systematic effort to downplay the seriousness
of the haze-problem not by addressing the source of the problem, but
rather by diminishing the psychology of calamity within the heads of
the victims at the receiving end.

It succeeds by preying on the weakness of certain people.

Gullible and indifferent ministers and members of Parliament who are
somehow convinced that the bad situation will run its course naturally
with little or no significant consequences, treat the matter
frivolously as an annual inconvenience deserving of mere ritual
offering of statements of concern (if any) mostly aimed at gaining
public approval. For the record, the governing elite have remained
largely silent.

Less-informed members of the public taken in by the trick let up on
their public pressure on the Singapore government to devise a more
concrete approach.

The reliance on public deception, leading to lessen domestic pressure,
further erodes the elected government's will to pursue meaningful and
effective policies of cooperation and coercion towards the country at
the source of the environmental hooliganism.

The result of this vicious cycle is feet-dragging and hand-sitting
down from the highest level for years gone by.

The outcome is a choking disaster.

The government proposed to talk. Talk about flimsy track record on
managing the haze problem. Talk about commonsense emergency action
plans. Talk about deploying their wonderful plan when the PSI exceeds
300 even when most are gasping badly at a third the intensity.

In sweat the Minister of Environment Dr Yaacob delivered more
commonsense statements on need. Need to "draw upon international
experience and come up with a plan of action which is long-term". Need
to "look at fire prevention because that's the better course of
action". Need for loud rhetoric on "Action."

Yet only to acknowledge that the Singapore government is prepared to
passively leave the situation "to the Indonesian government" to "make
a request" and for Singapore to "consider it."

And when the Environment Minister joined in a duet with NEA to cast
his own prophecy on a "possible clearing" by end-October, on weak
El-Nino, on the cure-all rectification by Indonesia of the Asean
Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, you sense the fools are
groping, and that as Dr Yaacob affirmed started from "way back since
1991".

Clearly, almost 10-years after the lessons of 1997, the solution
remains in the realm of fiction.

And in desperation, NEA prefers to hope. Hope for favourable winds.
Hope for the rain to wash away the haze. Hope for redemption through
silly prophecies.

Far from elaborating and moving plans which work, the government has
become salesman peddling false hopes and weak optimism, year in year out.

The haze will revisit Singapore for more years to come. The attitude
of some will see to that.


(Mr) Law Sin Ling