IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SHARON DISENGAGEMENT PLAN, WIDE SUPPORT FOR THE
EGYPTIAN INITIATIVE AND FOR VARIOUS FORMS OF INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE, BUT
ENDING ARMED ATTACKS FROM THE GAZA STRIP IS CONTINGENT ON A FULL ISRAELI
WITHDRAWAL FROM IT

24-27 June 2004

These are the results of poll # 12 conducted by the Palestinian Center for
Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between June
24 and 27, 2004. The poll deals with withdrawal from Gaza, winning the
intifada, armed attacks, reconciliation, local and national elections,
reform, democracy, corruption, and the popularity of Yasir Arafat, Marwan
Barghouti, and the various political factions. Total size of the sample is
1320 adults (835 in the West Bank and 485 in the Gaza Strip) interviewed
face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Ayoub
Mustafa, at Tel 02-2964933 or email pcpsr@...

www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2004/p12b.html
PSR - Survey Research Unit: Public Opinion Poll # 12

Results of Poll # (12)

24-27 June 2004
00) From among the following satellite news channels, which one was the one
you watched most during the last two months?
1) Al Arabiyyah10.2
2) Al Jazeerah58.1
3) Al Hurrah1.1
4) Al Manar12.0
5) ANN0.5
6) Do not watch tv5.3
7) Other (specify ----- )5.1
8) Have no dish7.4
9) DK/NA0.3
01) The PA has decided to hold local elections wherever possible while
postponing it in areas where it would not be possible. What do you think?
Do
you? (Gaza Strip)
1) Support holding local elections in towns and cities where it would be
possible45.1(38.6)
2) Oppose holding local elections in towns and cities where possible and
demand49.4(57.3)
3) DK/NA5.5(4.1)
02) If local elections are to take place at this time, would they be fair
or
unfair in your views?
1) Will probably be fair38.4
2) Will probably be unfair51.9
3) DK/NA9.7
03) If local elections were held and were fair, which candidates in your
views are likely to win, those nominated by family regardless of their
political affiliation or those nominated by Fateh and Hamas/Islamic Jihad
or
the independents?
1) Fateh candidate33.9
2) Hamas/Islamic Jihad candidate26.6
3) Neither, instead family candidate9.3
4) Independent17.5
5) Other (specify ----)3.0
6) DK/NA9.6
04) And what about you? Will you give your vote in the next local elections
to candidates from Fateh, Hamas/Islamic Jihad, or independents? Or will you
vote for your family candidate regardless of his or her political
affiliation?[West Bank](Gaza Strip)
1) Fateh26.4[28.3](23.1)
2) Hamas/Islamic Jihad28.3[26.3](31.8)
3) Independent17.0
4) Family8.5
5) Other7.9
6) I will not participate7.4
6) DK/NA4.5
05) With regard to the next local elections, people talk about the possible
participation of refugee camps located within the municipal boundaries of
cities and some propose the participation of these camps in the local
elections of those cities. But some propose holding independent elections
for those camps, while other oppose the participation of refugee camps in
the local elections. What do you think? Do you
1) Support the participation of the residents of refugee camps in the
local
elections for the cities where they are located69.6
2) Support holding independent elections for refugee camps to elect local
councils to administer them22.8
3) Oppose the participation of refugee camps in local elections4.7
4) Other 0.2
5) No Opinion /Don't know2.7
06) The PA has announced its intentions to hold local elections in the
coming September. Do you think the PA is serious or not serious about
holding these elections?(Gaza Strip)
1) Serious43.9(36.9)
2) Not serious43.8(48.9)
3) DK/NA12.3(14.2)
07) The local election law stipulates the direct election of local council
heads by the voters. A proposal has been submitted calling for amending the
law so that the heads of the local councils can instead be elected by the
elected local council members. Do you support or oppose this proposed
amendment?
1) Strongly support9.4
2) Support21.2
3) Oppose51.4
4) Strongly oppose 16.0
5) DK/NA2.0
08) The PLC is currently debating revisions to the general political
election law so that a women quota can be introduced. Tell us if you
support
or oppose this revision and if you support it tell us what percentage would
you propose for women quota in the next PLC.
1) Support75.3
2) Oppose (Move to Q09) 23.2
3) DK/NA (Move to Q09)1.5
08-1) percentage ----------------
Median30%
Mean25%
09) Regarding the legislative and presidential elections, do you encourage
or discourage Hamas participation in them if they take place in the near
future?
1) Strongly encourage48.542.3
2) Encourage39.943.6
3) Discourage4.96.0
4) Strongly discourage2.72.9
5) DK/NA4.05.2
10) If separate elections were to take place for the office of the
president
of the PA, you would vote for: (Open question) --------------------------
1) Yasser Arafat 54.0
2) Marwan Bargouthi 2.0
3) Mahmoud Zahhar 2.0
4) Other names (less than 2%) 15.0
5) DK/ NA decide later 27.0
11) If separate elections were to take place for the office of the vice
president of the PA, you would vote for: (Open question) ---------------
1) Ahmad Quarai'9.0
2) Marwan Bargouthi8.0
3) Saeb Erikat6.0
4) Mahmoud Abbas3.0
5) Mohammad Dahlan3.0
6) Mahmoud Zahhar2.0
7) Haidar Abdul Shafi2.0
8) Other names (less than 2%) 26.0
9) DK/ NA decide later 41.0
12) Recently, the Israeli Government has approved a modified version of
Sharon's disengagement plan. According to this plan Israel will evacuate
unilaterally and in stages, all settlements in the Gaza strip and a four
settlements in the West Bank.
In addition Israel will remain in control of a border strip on the
Rafah-Egypt border and on the border crossing, and will continue to block
sea and air access to the Gaza strip. Do you welcome or do not welcome this
decision?
1) Definitely welcome5.6
2) Welcome28.5
3) Do not welcome35.7
4) Definitely do not welcome28.9
5) DK/NA1.3
13) Would you support or oppose armed attacks against Israeli targets from
the Gaza Strip after the implementation of this disengagement plan which
has
been approved by the Israeli government?
1) Strongly support18.0
2) Support37.2
3) Oppose37.0
4) Strongly oppose 3.8
5) DK/NA4.0
14) And if the Israeli government evacuates the Gaza settlements and
withdraws completely from the Gaza Strip, including the border strip with
Egypt and the international border crossing in Rafah, and if it lifts the
air and see blockade so that the airport and sea port would function again,
would you in this case support or oppose armed attacks against Israeli
targets from the Gaza Strip?
1) Strongly support10.8
2) Support26.3
3) Oppose50.2
4) Strongly oppose9.1
5) DK/NA3.6
15) According to the modified disengagement plan, the actual evacuation of
settlements is pending upon additional government decisions and it is said
to be carried out by the end of 2005. In your opinion, will the modified
disengagement plan eventually be implemented or not
1) Definitely yes3.1
2) Yes21.0
3) No43.2
4) Definitely no25.2
5) DK/NA7.4
16) In recent weeks there is a sharp decrease in the level of violence
exerted by both sides. In your opinion should Palestinians continue
nevertheless the suicide bombings inside Israel if an opportunity
arises?(Gaza Strip)
1) Definitely yes21.9(33.3)
2) Yes36.7(34.3)
3) No31.6(25.2)
4) Definitely no5.5(3.9)
5) DK/NA4.3(3.3)
17) In the context of his disengagement plan, Sharon received a letter from
President Bush declaring the US commitment to Israel's security and its
existence as a Jewish state and the need to settle the Palestinian refugees
in a future Palestinian state rather than Israel and the need to take
demographic realities rather than the line of 1967 when setting the final
borders. To what extent is this letter important in shaping a permanent
agreement with the Israelis?
1) Very important14.9
2) Important35.2
3) Not important31.3
4) Not important at all 13.4
5) DK/NA5.2
18) In the context of the Israeli intentions to evacuate the Gaza
settlements, the Egyptian government has proposed an initiative containing
several elements such the unification of the Palestinian security services
under the control of the cabinet, the appointment of an effective interior
minister, and the deployment of Egyptian military advisers and security
officials in the Gaza Strip to assist in the implementation of a mutual
ceasefire plan. Tell us if you support or oppose each of these elements and
if you support or oppose the whole plan as a package:
18-1) Unification of the Palestinian security services under the control of
the cabinet
1) Strongly support22.7
2) Support58.5
3) Oppose12.5
4) Strongly oppose 3.2
5) DK/NA3.2
18-2) The appointment of an effective interior minister
1) Strongly support23.2
2) Support63.8
3) Oppose8.1
4) Strongly oppose 2.2
5) DK/NA2.7
18-3) Deployment of Egyptian military advisers and security officials in
the
Gaza Strip to assist in the implementation of a mutual ceasefire plan
1) Strongly support10.3
2) Support42.9
3) Oppose31.7
4) Strongly oppose 11.3
5) DK/NA3.8
18-4) The complete initiative
1) Strongly support10.5
2) Support53.4
3) Oppose25.3
4) Strongly oppose 6.5
5) DK/NA4.2
19) In the context of the Sharon disengagement plan, there is a talk about
the possible deployment of an armed international or multilateral force in
the Gaza Strip that would be responsible for security in the Rafah
international border crossing and the Egyptian-Palestinian border. Would
you support or oppose such deployment?
1) Strongly support10.2
2) Support49.5
3) Oppose29.5
4) Strongly oppose 9.4
5) DK/NA1.4
20) In the context of the Sharon disengagement plan and the evacuation of
the Gaza settlements, there is a talk about destroying homes in these
settlements while others see the necessity of keeping them intact for the
use of the Palestinians. Which one of the two options do you prefer?(Gaza
Strip)
1) I prefer destroying homes in Gaza settlements47.9(57.6)
2) I prefer keeping them intact48.7(40.9)
3) Other (specify ----- )1.1(0.4)
4) DK/NA2.4(1.0)
21) If you support keeping the settlements intact, would you in this case
support or oppose the deployment of an armed international force in these
settlements to take custody of them and maintain control over them until an
Israeli-Palestinian agreement on their future is reached?
1) Strongly support10.7
2) Support50.3
3) Oppose28.4
4) Strongly oppose 7.9
5) DK/NA2.8
22) In the context of the Sharon disengagement plan, there is a talk about
an international or multilateral presence in the Gaza Strip for the purpose
of rebuilding the PA institutions, ministries, and security services. Do
you
support or oppose this presence?
1) I support this presence to rebuild the civil and security institutions
58.5
2) I support this presence to rebuild the civil institutions only11.7
3) I support this presence to rebuild the security services only5.2
4) I oppose this presence21.5
5) No Opinion/ Don't Know3.0
23) In the same context, there is a talk about an international or
multilateral presence aiming at rebuilding the Palestinian economy and
infrastructure. Do you support or oppose this presence?
1) Strongly support24.2
2) Support54.1
3) Oppose13.2
4) Strongly oppose7.0
5) DK/NA1.4
24) After Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and while awaiting general
elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, there is a talk about Hamas
participation in the administration of the Strip. Do you support or oppose
this participation?
1) Strongly support39.6
2) Support50.1
3) Oppose5.5
4) Strongly oppose 2.1
5) DK/NA2.8
25) If you support Hamas participation in the administration of the Gaza
Strip, how much should its share in decision making be? For example, should
it 10% or 90% or something between the two? (Give a percentage between 10
and 90)
The percentage should be ----------------
Median 50%
Mean45%
26) When Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip, are you worried about
internal Palestinian infighting in the Strip?
1) Very worried17.7
2) Worried41.7
3) Not worried30.9
4) Not worried at all8.0
5) DK/NA1.7
Total%
27) How would you evaluate the capacity of the PA to control matters in the
Gaza strip after Israeli withdrawal from it?
1) High capacity29.7
2) Medium capacity41.8
3) Low capacity14.6
4) No capacity at all10.1
5) DK/NA3.9
28) Who in your opinion who will assume control in the Gaza strip after the
Israeli withdrawal from it?
1) The PA59.2
2) Armed groups and political factions25.5
3) Other 4.1
4) No one4.1
5) DK/NA7.0
29) What do you expect to happen in the Gaza strip after the Israeli
withdrawal from it?
1) Life will fully resume in an orderly manner31.1
2) Life will resume but there will be some disorder55.4
3) Anarchy and chaos will prevail11.2
4) DK/NA2.2
30) Who came out the winner so far in the ongoing armed conflict that has
started in September 2000 between Israel and the Palestinians? (Gaza Strip)
1) Israel16.0(11.8)
2) the Palestinians39.6(53.6)
3) Both4.6(3.3)
4) Neither37.2(29.7)
5) DK/NA2.6(1.6)



31) And what do the majority of Palestinians think on this issue? In their
opinion, who came out the winner in the armed conflict so far? (Gaza Strip)
1) Most Palestinians think Israel is the winner17.3(11.5)
2) Most Palestinians think the Palestinians are the winner47.8(60.8)
3) Most Palestinians think Both sides are winners2.2(1.0)
4) Most Palestinians think Neither side is a winner25.8(18.6)
5) DK/NA6.9(8.0)
32) And what do the majority of Israelis think on this issue? In their
opinion, who came out the winner in the armed conflict so far?(Gaza Strip)
1) Most Israelis think Israel is the winner51.0(46.2)
2) Most Israelis think the Palestinians are the winner20.2(29.7)
3) Most Israelis think Both sides are winners1.7(1.6)
4) Most Israelis think Neither side is a winner18.7(14.0)
5) DK/NA8.3(8.5)
33) With regard to the Roadmap plan initiated by the US European Union
Russia and the UN, do you think it has collapsed or do you think there is
still room to implement it?
1) Definitely the Roadmap has collapsed40.5
2) Think the roadmap has collapsed26.3
3) Think it has not collapsed and room exist for its implementation24.6
4) Definitely It has not collapsed, room exists for its implementation3.5
5) No opinion/ Do not know5.2
34) What do you expect to happen now after the Israeli government decision
regarding Sharon plan for disengagement from the Gaza Strip and the
acceptance of the Egyptian initiative by the Palestinian leadership?
1) Negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will
stop20.4
2) Negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue51.7
3) Armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to
negotiations21.2
4) DK/NA6.7
35) Would you say that these days your security and safety, and that of
your
family, is assured or not assured?
1) Completely assured 3.3
2) Assured19.9
3) Not assured48.5
4) Not assured at all28.1
5) DK/NA0.2
36) In your view, are officials and others involved in or accused of
corruption often charged or brought to account?
1) Certainly yes5.5
2) Yes22.6
3) No42.2
4) Certainly no25.9
5) DK/NA3.8
37) There are internal and external calls for wide and fundamental domestic
reforms and changes in the institutions and authorities of the Palestinian
Authority. Do you support or oppose these calls?
1) Strongly support36.5
2) Support55.9
3) Oppose4.9
4) Strongly oppose0.8
5) No opinion/ do not know2.0
38) In your view, does the PA carry out these days wide and fundamental
domestic reforms and changes in its institutions and authorities?
1) Certainly yes6.1
2) Yes33.6
3) No39.1
4) Certainly no14.2
5) DK/NA7.1
39) Concerning armed attacks against Israeli soldiers in the West Bank and
the Gaza Strip, I..
1) Strongly support43.7
2) Support42.3
3) Oppose10.5
4) Strongly oppose1.1
5) No opinion/ do not know2.5
40) Concerning armed attacks against Israeli settlers in the West Bank and
the Gaza Strip, I..
1 Strongly support42.3
2 Support40.5
3 Oppose13.5
4 Strongly oppose1.1
5 No opinion/ do not know2.6
41) Concerning armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel, I..
(Gaza Strip)
1) Strongly support23.1(35.5)
2) Support27.0(24.4)
3) Oppose42.0(34.1)
4) Strongly oppose5.2(5.2)
5) No opinion/ do not know2.7(0.8)
42) With regard to call for a cessation of violence by both sides, I
1) Support it79.0
2) Oppose it17.9
3) No Opinion/ Don't know3.1
43) If an agreement is reached to cease violence by both sides, but armed
attacks against Israelis continued, do you approve or oppose, in this case,
the Palestinian Authority taking measures to prevent them?(Gaza Strip)
1) Approve55.0(51.7)
2) Oppose40.7(44.2)
3) Don't Know /No answer4.3(4.1)
44) Do you believe that armed confrontations so far have helped achieve
Palestinian rights in a way that negotiations could not?(Gaza Strip)
1) Definitely yes26.0(36.8)
2) Yes42.9(36.2)
3) No24.5(18.0)
4) Definitely no3.9(6.4)
5) Don't Know /No answer2.7(2.7)
45) And what do the majority of Palestinians think on this issue? Does the
majority think, or does not think, that armed confrontations have so far
helped achieve Palestinian rights in a way that negotiations could
not?(Gaza
Strip)
1) Most Palestinians think armed confrontations have helped62.1(70.7)
2) Most Palestinians do not think armed confrontations have
helped29.8(22.8)
3) DK/NA8.1(6.4)
46) After reaching a peace agreement between the Palestinian people and
Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian state that is recognized by
Israel, would you support or oppose the process of reconciliation between
the state of Palestine and the state of Israel?
1) Strongly support15.8
2) Support56.3
3) Oppose21.1
4) Strongly oppose5.3
5) DN/NA1.4
47) After reaching a peace agreement between the Palestinian people and
Israel and the establishment of a Palestinian state that is recognized by
Israel, how soon do you think will reconciliation between the two peoples
be
achieved?
1) Reconciliation is not possible ever42.7
2) Only in many generations to come17.2
3) Only in the next generation12.4
4) Only in the next decade5.9
5) On the next few years13.8
6) No Opinion /Don't know8.0
48) After reaching a peace agreement between the Palestinian side and
Israel
and the establishment of a Palestinian state that is recognized by Israel,
the following are steps that may be taken in order to enhance relations
between the State of Israel and a Palestinian State. For each of the
suggested steps please tell me whether you support or oppose it:
48-1 Open borders to free movement of people and goods
1) Strongly support25.8
2) Support58.2
3) Oppose12.2
4) Strongly oppose3.0
5) DN/NA0.8
48-2 Create joint economic institutions and ventures
1) Strongly support16.5
2) Support50.0
3) Oppose27.6
4) Strongly oppose4.4
5) DN/NA1.6
48-3 Create joint political institutions (such as a parliament. designed
eventually to lead to a confederate system
1) Strongly support6.0
2) Support25.0
3) Oppose50.6
4) Strongly oppose14.4
5) DN/NA4.0
48-4 Take legal measures against incitement against Israel
1) Strongly support4.3
2) Support29.0
3) Oppose48.4
4) Strongly oppose15.4
5) DN/NA2.9
48-5 Adopt school curriculum in the Palestinian state that recognizes
Israel
and teaches school children not to demand return of all Palestine to the
Palestinians
1) Strongly support1.7
2) Support7.4
3) Oppose49.2
4) Strongly oppose39.5
5) DN/NA2.1
49) If separate elections for the president of the Palestinian Authority
were held today, whom would you choose?
1) Haidar Abdul Shafi9.9
2) Yasser Arafat49.2
3) Others (specify ---- )4.5
4) None of the above25.0
5) I will not participate10.5
6) No Opinion / Don't Know0.9
50) If separate elections for a Vice President of the Palestinian Authority
were held today, whom would you choose?
1) Saeb Erikat9.3
2) Hanan Ashrawi4.7
3) Haidar Abdul Shafi6.4
4) Farouq Kaddomi3.6
5) Marwan Bargouthi25.4
6) Ahmad Quarai'5.7
7) Mahmoud Abbas3.0
8) Mohammad Dahlan3.6
9) No one, will decide later22.9
10) I will not participate10.1
11) Others (--------------)3.0
12) No Opinion / Don't Know2.2
51) In your opinion, is there a freedom for the press in our country?
1) Yes20.2
2) To some extent37.0
3) No40.0
4) DK/NA2.8
52) In your opinion, can people in the West Bank and Gaza today criticize
the PA without fear?
1) yes50.2
2) no45.4
3) DK/NA4.4
53) If you want to evaluate the status of democracy and human rights in the
Palestinian Authority, you would say it is:
1) very good3.9
2) good20.8
3) not good and not bad27.0
4) bad26.2
5) very bad19.5
6) DK/NA2.6
54) Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions?
1) Yes86.7
2) No7.0
3) Don't Know /No answer6.3
55) If yes, Will this corruption in PA institutions increase, decrease or
remain as it is in the future?
1) Will increase51.9
2) Will remain as it is14.4
3) Will decrease25.5
4) No opinion /Don't know8.2
56) Which of the following political parties do you support?
1) PPP0.8
2) PFLP2.6
3) Fateh27.5
4) Hamas24.0
5) DFLP0.9
6) Islamic Jihad5.7
7) Fida0.1
8) Independent Islamists5.4
9) Independent Nationalists6.1
10) None of the above25.8
11) Other, specify ------ 1.2
57) An Israeli court has completed the trial of Marwan Barghouti (member of
the PLC and Fateh's Secretary General) and sentenced him to several life
sentences. How in your view did the trial affect the image of Barghouti?
1) Did not affect it positively or negatively25.6
2) I see him more qualified to be a Palestinian leader66.6
3) I see him less qualified to be a Palestinian leader4.1
4) DK/NA3.7
58) During the last few months, Israel has assassinated tow of Hamas
leaders, Shaykh Ahmad Yasin and Dr. Abdul Aziz Rantisi. Now after the
passing of several months, would you say these assassinations have weakened
or strengthened Hamas so far?
1) Strengthened Hamas36.0
2) Weakened Hamas39.1
3) Did not affect Hamas21.9
4) DK/NA3.1



--------------------------------------------
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Website: www.imra.org.il