[Mewnews - There is apparently an error in this sentence:
"In the political context, Abu Mazen is now reiterating and declaring that in no
uncertain terms is he willing to agree to a temporary arrangement or a state
within temporary borders, as stipulated in the American road map plan. He wants
a
final settlement, and without delay. "

Apparently, it should be:
"In the political context, Abu Mazen is now reiterating and declaring in no
uncertain terms THAT he is NOT willing to agree to a temporary arrangement or a
state within temporary borders, as stipulated in the American road map plan. He
wants a final settlement, and without delay." ]


The calm before the storm

By Danny Rubinstein

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/542616.html

The impression one gets from the goings-on among the Palestinian public and
leadership is that the question isn't whether the bloody clashes will start up
again - but when. In other words, when will the relative calm end and the
routine
of terror attacks and violence return?



The reason for the few-and-far-between terror attacks in recent weeks is not
only
the efforts of the new government of Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and his deals
with
Hamas and Islamic Jihad, but primarily the public mood in the territories, where
people are weary of the hardships of the intifada. There's a desire for some
peace and quiet in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This was expressed well by
the Hamas leader in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, who explained over the weekend that
his
organization had agreed to participate in maintaining the calm because Hamas and
its activists are committed to rebuilding and development in the territories to
the same degree that they are committed to the struggle and liberation.

But there are limits to this weariness, and the seeds of trouble can be seen in
the field. The first is the prisoners' affair. The publication of the list of
500
prisoners whom Israel is about to release (and it doesn't include prisoners from
East Jerusalem) was met with protest rallies in the West Bank and Gaza, as well
as threats of hunger strikes. Palestinian spokespersons said it was an insult,
that it was like spitting in the face of Abu Mazen, while Palestinian cabinet
minister Ghassan al-Khatib, exaggerating somewhat perhaps, said that since the
Sharm al-Sheikh summit, the Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet security service
had arrested approximately the same number of Palestinians they had hoped to
release now. There were expectations in the territories for the dramatic release
of 3,000 (according to Mohammed Dahlan) or 5,000 (Marwan Barghouti) prisoners,
and not for a repeat performance of the Israeli style of freeing prisoners who
had been sentenced to short jail terms and were slated for release soon anyway.

A second seed of trouble is the separation fence, the construction of which is
continuing, and the reinforcement and expansion of settlement blocs in the West
Bank. In a number of places in Judea and the northern West Bank over the past
few
days, there have been acts of resistance against the fence or, more precisely,
the route of the fence, which has a severe effect on services and the
livelihoods
of many. The fact that the Labor Party or the High Court of Justice consented to
the route makes no impression on the Palestinian who is suffering because of it.

In the political context, Abu Mazen is now reiterating and declaring that in no
uncertain terms is he [Meant to say - "He is not willing" - MEWNEWS] willing to
agree to a temporary arrangement or a state within temporary borders, as
stipulated in the American road map plan. He wants a final settlement, and
without delay. In other words, he is insisting, already now, on discussing
issues
over which it is impossible to reach an agreement - Jerusalem, the settlement
blocs, borders and refugees. Abu Mazen is also saying that the current
cease-fire
is not the end of the intifada and that the nonviolent resistance will continue.
(Yasser Arafat used similar statements to justify the demonstrations in the
territories that preceded the intifada.) In addition, he declared last weekend
that he was not concerned about Hamas making significant inroads in the
elections
to the Palestinian Legislative Council in four months' time.

In the meantime, there has been no change in the levels of unemployment and
poverty in the territories. For these to change, there is a need to remove
checkpoints inside the territories, to allow more workers into Israel and to put
the Gaza sea and air ports back into operation.

It doesn't look like all of this is going to happen; and on this backdrop, one
can estimate when the relative calm will end and the intifada will be renewed:
The estimated time span is a few months, with the completion of the
disengagement - namely, following Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and the northern
West Bank. By then, a new Palestinian parliament will be in place, with
significant representation for Hamas and other Palestinian opposition elements.
The political horizon will then cloud over, and there won't be anything to look
forward to.

Marwan Barghouti estimated (in an interview from prison with Maariv) that Abu
Mazen has six months. He knows what he's talking about.



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