Uzbek pot begins to boil
06/09/2005 13:10
Slowly but steadily

http://english.pravda.ru/world/20/92/373/15622_uzbek.html

What's happening in Uzbekistan? One more display of
radical Islam, dreaming of pan-Islamic caliphate?
Another "democratic" color revolution in the former
USSR? A revolt of the hungry population? Clan feuds?
The West's revenge for Uzbekistan's withdrawal from
anti-Russian GUUAM (now GUAM) alliance? Or another
episode in the global fight for natural resources?

Probably, a little of everything.

Acramia, which organized the revolt, is not a Taliban
but still. The organization was organized in 1996 as a
branch of Hizb-ut-Tahrir ("the way to the true
faith"), which is regarded by the official Tashkent as
the organizer of the terror attacks in 2004.

As distinct from Taliban, Acramia denounces violence
and preaches "peaceful seizure of power" at local
level. But it's not ruled out that the both
organizations are connected with each other. This is
maintained by the official Tashkent, and the Russian
foreign minister opined that the events in Uzbekistan
had developed "with the assistance of foreign forces,
including the Talibs".

But the point is definitely not only in religious
motivation of the people who seized Andijan. "The
authorities speak about the attempt of Islamic coup.
Though, in fact, Karimov understands quite well that
the case in point isn't only radical Islam", asserts
the president of the Oriental Studies Foundation,
Sergei Luzyanin. In his opinion, which is shared by
the European media, the religious extremists represent
just "specks" in the secular protest.

This "secular protest" has the political and economic
reasons. It is no secret that Usbekistan did always
have, even over the Soviet period, tough authoritarian
regimes. After the republic obtained the independence,
the authoritarianism became only more pronounced: what
distinguishes it from that of Turkmenistan is only the
lack of the quasi-religious presidential cult. Even
for the East this toughness turned to be excessive.

As far as the economics is concerned, the situation in
Uzbekistan is better, than in the neighboring
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. According to the official
statistics, the country has accumulated $ 15 billions
of foreign investments. The new investment program
implies investing $ 515 million, the biggest part
which - $ 209 million - is supposed to be invested
into oil & gas production.

The bright picture is spoiled by the demographic boom.
Uzbekistan is the most densely populated post-soviet
country: according to the last year estimation, the
population numbers 26.5 million people. The country
also leads in the rate of population growth: almost 2%
or 0.5 million people per year. Consequently, despite
the good economic growth (7.7 % the last year), the
GDP per capita, even according to the official data,
is lower than the poverty level set by UN (though
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are even more poor). The
problem is aggravated by the shortage of the arable
land. The land in turn demands irrigation, but the
amount of water is also insufficient. The compulsory
growing of wheat (of the low quality) doesn't solve
the problem of the food security.

In short, as the population grows, the explosive
revolutionary potential is also accumulating. The
economic emigration doesn't save the situation any
longer, though the Uzbeks, who have emigrated to the
other countries of the CIS, number millions.
Rebellious Andijan is situated in Fergana Valley (20
km from the border with Kyrgyzstan), where the
socio-economic situation is horrible even for
Uzbekistan: up to 70% of the able-bodied population
don't have a full-time job. Fergana Valley has become
a focus of the opposition forces of Uzbekistan (those
who are still not imprisoned). So there's nothing
surprising that the revolt erupted there.

Uzbekistan's economy is a thing in itself. The true
size of such variables as unemployment, average and
subsistence wages, proceeds of cotton exports are
almost unavailable. As some observers put it, the
planned economy was replaced by the clan economy. The
president's family and his friends control all
commanding heights of the economy as the fuel and
energy complex and the cotton production. The Karimov
family also controls all Tashkent's business. The
republic still has the manufacturing industry:
aircraft industry, motor-car industry, chemical
industry. So the reasons for the repartition of the
lucrative spoils are there.

Another serious theme is Uzbekistan's natural
resources. By the recent estimations, on Uzbekistan's
territory there are over 2 billions tons (in the fuel
equivalent) of the explored reserves of the
carbohydrates. And much more is yet to be discovered:
60% of the Uzbek territory is promising in this
respect. Only in 5 regions with the proved presence of
oil-and-gas around 200 deposits were discovered.
Uzbekistan accounts for three forth of the Central
Asian condensed gas, 40% of the natural gas, a little
less than of the oil reserves and 55% of coal. There
are also significant deposits of gold, silver,
uranium, copper, molybdenum, tungsten.

Why are Uzbekistan's resources less known than those
of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan? Just because almost all
resources which are now in use in the post-soviet
states were discovered in the Soviet times, and the
Soviet Union simply didn't have time to invest into
the exploration of Uzbekistan's resources. And after
the collapse of the Soviet Union the Western investors
rushed promptly to the already explored deposits.

But now the West has seemingly expressed the interest
to Uzbekistan's resources. And probably the West could
send a message to the too independent Tashkent's
ruler, who dared refuse to participate in such a
promising and obedient alliance as GUUAM. But he had
no choice. The pipeline for the sake of which this
alliance was formally organized went the other way,
through Turkey. But meeting his "orange" counterparts
for discussing their pro-American and anti-Russian
plans became of no interest to Karimov.

The last year he signed with Russia a major treaty on
the strategic partnership, where the economic side is
recognized as primary. The Russian capital rushed into
the country: only LUKOil intends to invest a billion
$ into extraction and processing of gas. But as it's
well-known an obvious bias in favor of Russia is
fraught with "color revolutions".

However Karimov's regime stands firm as yet: despite
some tensions with USA and Uzbekistan, Washington
still regards the Uzbek leader as its ally. Hence the
reserved intonation of the American comments on the
events in Andijan. They said that democracy is a good
thing but still... another Taliban is not welcome at
all. But anyway it's not ruled out the revolt itself
was ordered by Washington. As an unequivocal message
to Karimov: don't forget who's the boss.
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More on Uzbekistan at:
http://www.islamawareness.net/CentralAsia/Uzbekistan/






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