How will the impending global peak of petroleum extraction, Hubbert's Peak, affect Japanese economy, society, and survival ?

This group is intended for discussion of how, or whether, Japan can withstand the peak and subsequent decline of global petroleum production. It is assumed most members will be familiar with the core Hubbert style analysis of global petroleum depletion, which can be learned at the sites listed below:

* www.dieoff.org
* www.hubbertpeak.com

Japan is an interesting case. With strong points including a giant economy, highly educated and literate population, and declining native birth rate, it might appear in a strong position to weather any storm. Yet, it has massive dependencies on the outside world for food, fuel, and other critical resources. The population size is way beyond local self-sufficiency, far into overshoot territory.

There are many possibilities, what will we see ?

* a return to population and living standards of the Edo period ?

* complete collapse, dieoff, and extinction ?

* colonization and/or genocide by China or some other power ?

* attempts at re-militarization and regional hegemony ?

Or, something rosier ? Perhaps ...

* wholesale conversion to a locally based "hydrogen economy", as planned in Iceland ?

* a thriving information and service brain-trust economy powered by utterly new energy breakthroughs (such as cold fusion) ?

Or, something else, currently unimaginable ?

Those who need more background on specifics of the Japanese situation are invited to read the excellent papers archived at:

http://www.net-ibaraki.ne.jp/aboys/

We hope to attract real experts as well as informed opinion and breaking news to this international group. We are interested in the contributions of both Japanese living in Japan, as well as Japanese ex-pats, and people of any nationality with an interest in the future of this amazing society.

Posting in either Japanese or English language will be appropriate for most of the readership.