The Greens did very well, with something like 8% of the vote across
the state. That should be compared with 20% for the Liberals, and 17%
for the Nationals. Of course, the Greens received no seats, the
Liberals about 8 and the Nationals about 16!

They ran four candidates in the Toowoomba area, with two actively
supported campaigns and paper campaigns in the mostly-rural
electorates of Lockyer and Cunningham. All of their candidates got
over 5%, which is quite marvellous in these extemely conservative
electorates. In most cases, however, they were outpolled by Family
First.

The ALP gained ground in both Toowoomba North and Toowoomba South.
They now have something like an 11% margin in Toowoomba North, which
is a remarkable shift since the original wafer-thin margin by which
they won it. It's possible, however, that a fair bit of this margin
may be associated with the incumbent, Kerry Shine, and may be lost
when he eventually retires. It doesn't look like he will be voted out
in a hurry!

Toowoomba South was interesting mainly because the ALP candidate,
Frank Burke, has very obvious "star potential". He won a 3% swing
against the sitting National, Mike Horan, but Horan still got close
to 60% of the vote. The borders of Toowoomba South are rather odd,
since it encompasses sizable chunks of semi-rural areas, while
excluding a fair bit of southern Toowoomba itself. This may be
changed next time the electoral boundaries are reviewed. Furthermore,
there is a process of suburban sprawl into these "semi-rural" areas,
so it is likely that demographic changes will eventually tend to tip
the seat to Labor.

Lockyer seems to be very close, but the Nationals will retain it on
preferences. This one raises an interesting question, because the
Greens didn't direct preferences in any of these electorates except
Toowoomba North, where the National candidate was clearly
unacceptable, and was an active campaigner against water recycling.
(The Greens know him well!) Family First definitely preferenced in
Toowoomba South, and, I believe in all the other seats as well. Since
they also outpolled the Greens (7% to the Greens' 5%), their
preference flows will deliver the seat to the Nationals.

Still, this situation has potential benefits for the Greens. The ALP
needs their support in places like Lockyer, and will need their
support if the ALP ever hopes to win Toowoomba South. So there is
scope for a bit of deal making.

Finally, it is clear that the de facto united front between the
Greens and ALP in Toowoomba is alive and well. Even when the two
parties were notionally in head to head competition, the level of
fraternisation was striking. The Greens' post-election party was held
in Trades Hall, and one of the ALP candidates and his campaign
manager dropped in for a beer!

Unfortunately this leftish united front is matched to some degree by
a rightist one, with Family First apparently having a particular
dislike for the Greens.

Looking forward, the next thing that will be happening in the Wacky
World of the Toowoomba Greens will be the Queensland Greens' own
internal elections. Apparently, the key activist in the Toowoomba
Greens is running for State Convenor, and has a fair chance of being
elected. Now *that* would put the cat among the pigeons.

Alan B