Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. originally predicted and explained our present political-economic crisis in his Olduvai Theory written in 2000:

In 1989, I concluded that the life-expectancy of Industrial Civilization is horridly short. This hypothesis was defined in terms of a measurable index, world energy-use per person (e), and named the “transient-pulse theory of Industrial Civilization.” I sketched its maximum point at 1990, followed by a persistent decline. By 1996, however, I had successfully tested the Olduvai theory against numerous sets of data. The following facts emerge.

• The broad sweep of human history can be divided into three phases.
  
  
• The first, or pre-industrial phase was a very long period of equilibrium when simple tools and weak machines limited economic growth.
  
  
• The second, or industrial phase was a very short period of non-equilibrium that ignited with explosive force when powerful new machines temporarily lifted all limits to growth.
  
  
• The third, or de-industrial phase lies immediately ahead during which time the industrial economies will decline toward a new period of equilibrium, limited by the exhaustion of nonrenewable resources and continuing deterioration of the natural environment.

The life-expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than one-hundred (100) years. Industrial Civilization doesn’t evolve. Rather, it rapidly consumes “the necessary physical prerequisites” for its own existence. It’s short-term, unsustainable. “This is a one shot affair – there will be one chance, and one chance only.”

The Olduvai theory states that the life-expectancy of Industrial Civilization, defined in terms of world energy use per capita (e), is less than or equal to 100 years.

HISTORY: We know that the peak of (e) occurred in 1979 and that (e) declined from 1979 to 1999 (the ’slope’).

FUTURE: The Olduvai Theory predicts that (e) will decline even faster from 2000 to the so-named ‘cliff event’ (the ’slide’). The ‘cliff event’ is forecast to occur in year 2012. ...

In his first update of the Olduvai Theory since 2000, Duncan states his predictions for our near human future. In this update, he equates our energy use (e) to our standard of living (SL). The following illustration (Figure 5)  is from the June 2009 update:

Yes! Magazine -- It may be prophetic that among the brands GM chose to kill was the Pontiac Firebird, a classic hot car of the 1960s sporting the fabled Phoenix on its hood. In mythology, the Phoenix was a colorful bird that incinerated itself in its nest, then rose from the ashes as its own offspring. GM too, says Michael Moore, could be reborn as something else. In a June 1 eulogy of sorts, he wrote:

“So here we are at the deathbed of General Motors. The company’s body not yet cold, and I find myself filled with—dare I say it—joy. It is not the joy of revenge against a corporation that ruined my hometown … Nor do I, obviously, claim any joy in knowing that 21,000 more GM workers will be told that they, too, are without a job. But you and I and the rest of America now own a car company!”

What would we want with a car company? Moore suggests that the bankrupt mega-builder of obsolete gas guzzlers can be transformed into a mega-builder of things we need more—mass transit vehicles, including bullet trains, light rail mass transit lines, energy efficient clean buses, hybrid or all-electric cars, and alternative energy devices such as batteries, windmills, and solar panels. The factories that built the cars that destroyed the environment can become the tools for cleaning it up. This would, of course, take some investment; but Moore suggests that to pay for it all, the government could impose a two-dollar tax on every gallon of gasoline.

It sounds good right up to the gas tax, a regressive tax that would hit hardest in the wallets of the poor and would raise alarm bells for politicians, the oil lobby, and voters. Isn’t there some way to fund the plan without driving up the tax burden or the national debt? In fact, there is.

To Put Our New Car Company to Good Use, We Just Need to Own a Bank The federal government could create its own credit with its own government-owned lending facility, on the model of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation used by President Roosevelt to fund the New Deal. But instead of merely recycling borrowed money as Roosevelt did, the new facility could actually create credit on its books. Its capital base could be leveraged into many times that sum in loans, in the same way that private banks routinely create money (or “credit”) today. Assuming a reserve requirement of 10%, if the $300 billion or so that remains of the TARP money were deposited in the new bank, this money could be leveraged into $3 trillion in loans. If the money were counted as capital, at an 8% capital requirement it could become $3.75 trillion in loans, or 12.5 times the original sum.

Indeed, it is the sovereign right of governments to create the national money supply, but few governments exercise that right today. The only money the U.S. government now issues are coins, which compose only about one ten-thousandth of the U.S. M3 money supply. The rest is created by private banking institutions when they make loans. This includes the privately-owned Federal Reserve, which creates Federal Reserve Notes (dollar bills) and lends them to the government and to commercial banks. Federal Reserve Notes compose only 3% of the money supply. All of the rest consists merely of credit created on the books of private banks.

Many authorities have attested that banks simply create the money they lend as accounting entries on their books. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas states on its website:
“Banks actually create money when they lend it. Here’s how it works: Most of a bank’s loans are made to its own customers and are deposited in their checking accounts. Because the loan becomes a new deposit, just like a paycheck does, the bank … holds a small percentage of that new amount in reserve and again lends the remainder to someone else, repeating the money-creation process many times.” (07/04/09)

Deepak Chopra writes: President Obama's superlative speech at Cairo University will be much analyzed. It was, as expected, an address that was rational, intelligent, eloquent, and fair. ...

The heart of the speech was Obama's candid talk about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the social obstructions in Arab society. It was bracing to hear him say that "Israel isn't going away," just as it was moving to hear the words, "peace be upon them" when he referred to Muhammad and Abraham. In one stroke Obama set America's policy toward the Arab world back on a sensible, moral, even idealistic path.

Yet there is a glaring problem that the speech didn't confront directly, which is the inability of "good" Muslims to stand up for change. "Good" is equated with devout, and that's a huge obstacle to reform. The Muslim world has not liberated its core values from the dogmas of religion. In the name of devotion to God, women are denied even basic rights; terrorists march under the banner of faith; mullahs control credulous masses of believers; education for the average citizen is totally centered on the Koran. All of these are backward trends. They run counter to the modern world. In fact, the overwhelming dominance of dictators and royal families in the Arab states doesn't begin to be consistent with democratic values that are two hundred years old in the West. Human rights are more or less non-existent. This is an appalling state of affairs, and no amount of tolerance from America's side alters that fact.

Therefore, as civilized as it was for President Obama to extend a hand to the faithful, Muslims cannot have it both ways. They can't demand respect while using religion as a reactionary force. In every Muslim country without exception, core social values have medieval roots. Atop the swelling masses of illiterate people, a tiny oligarch sits. This oligarchy is rich, secular, and westernized. It pays lip service to the mullahs and fears their power. But the oligarchy rarely lifts a finger to share its wealth and influence, to extend opportunities to average citizens, or to challenge the reactionary social forces that the jihadists represent. Their sole aim is to stay on top and suppress anyone who opposes what the elite wants.

Obama addressed multiple issues and threw light upon all of them. He didn't shy away from hot-button topics like women's equality, to the point that he chided Muslims for telling women how to dress in public. In all respects he told his audience what the modern world, and particularly the West, honestly thinks of them. Will they listen? The mullahs won't. The extremists won't. The illiterate will get only a vague sense that America isn't as hateful and fearsome as the demagogues have told them. But until the small sliver of privileged Muslims quit playing their hypocritical games, problems will only get worse. (07/04/09)

BBC Animal Science -- The world's largest cat, the Amur tiger, is down to an effective wild population of fewer than 35 individuals, new research has found.

Although up to 500 of the big cats actually survive in the wild, the effective population is a measure of their genetic diversity. That in turn is a good predictor of the Amur tiger's chances of survival. The results come from the most complete genetic survey yet of wild Amur tigers, the rarest subspecies of tiger.

At the start of the 20th Century, nine subspecies of tiger existed, with a total world population of more than 100,000 individuals.

Human impacts have since caused the extinction of three subspecies, the Javan tiger, Bali tiger and Caspian tiger, and world tiger numbers could now have fallen to fewer than 3000.

The Amur tiger, or Siberian tiger as it is also known, is the largest subspecies which once lived across a large portion of northern China, the Korean peninsula, and the southernmost regions of far east Russia. The Amur tiger most likely derived from the Caspian tiger, recent research has shown.

During the early 20th century, the Amur tiger too was almost driven to extinction, as expanding human settlements, habitat loss and poaching wiped out this biggest of cats from over 90% of its range.

By the 1940s just 20 to 30 individuals survived in the wild. Since then, a ban on hunting and a remarkable conservation effort have slowly helped the Amur tiger recover. Today, up to 500 are thought to survive in the wild, while 421 cats are kept in captivity. However, the genetic health of the tiger hasn't improved, according to a new analysis published in Molecular Ecology. (07/02/09)

BBC Geographical Science -- The most complete terrain map of the Earth's surface has been published. The data, comprising 1.3 million images, come from a collaboration between the US space agency Nasa and the Japanese trade ministry.

The images were taken by Japan's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (Aster) aboard the Terra satellite.

The resulting Global Digital Elevation Map covers 99% of the Earth's surface, and will be free to download and use.

The Terra satellite, dedicated to Earth monitoring missions, has shed light on issues ranging from algal blooms to volcano eruptions.

For the Aster measurements, local elevation was mapped with each point just 30m apart.

"This is the most complete, consistent global digital elevation data yet made available to the world," said Woody Turner, Nasa programme scientist on the Aster mission. (06/30/09)

BBC Weather Science -- A heat wave is sweeping the country and rains are delayed in many parts. Rains usually last from June to September. "It [the monsoon] is late," federal minister Prithviraj Chavan told reporters. North-west India appeared to be worst affected by the slow rains with only 81% rains forecast.

Monsoon rains are critical to India's farm prospects, which account for a sixth of economic output. Up to 70% of Indians are dependent on farm incomes, and about 60% of India's farms depend on rains. Irrigation networks are dismissed by critics as inadequate. The summer rains are crucial to crops such as rice, soybean, sugarcane and cotton. ...

"Praying for rain, bracing for worst" headlined the Hindustan Times on its front page on Wednesday. The newspaper said that in at least eight states, monsoon rains so far had been 60 to 90% below normal.

"There is concern but no worry as yet. There is still time," Farm Secretary T Nanda Kumar told the newspaper. One analyst said delay in the rains in some parts of India could hit economic growth.

"Delay in monsoon will play the spoilsport and may hit GDP by at least 1 to 1.5 percentage points," stockbroker VK Sharma, told the Reuters news agency. Economists agree that the delay will cause further stress in a country where food prices are already high. (06/25/09)

BBC Archaeological Science -- Scientists in Germany have published details of flutes dating back to the time that modern humans began colonising Europe, 35,000 years ago. The flutes are the oldest musical instruments found to date.

The researchers say in the journal Nature that music was widespread in pre-historic times. Music, they suggest, may have been one of a suite of behaviours displayed by our own species which helped give them an edge over the Neanderthals.

The team from Tubingen University have published details of three flutes found in the Hohle Fels cavern in southwest Germany. The cavern is already well known as a site for signs of early human efforts; in May, members of the same team unveiled a Hohle Fels find that could be the world's oldest Venus figure.

The most well-preserved of the flutes is made from a vulture's wing bone, measuring 20cm long with five finger holes and two "V"-shaped notches on one end of the instrument into which the researchers assume the player blew. The archaeologists also found fragments of two other flutes carved from ivory that they believe was taken from the tusks of mammoths. The find brings the total number of flutes discovered from this era to eight, four made from mammoth ivory and four made from bird bones.

According to Professor Nicholas Conard of Tubingen University, this suggests that the playing of music was common as far back as 40,000 years ago when modern humans spread across Europe. "It's becoming increasingly clear that music was part of day-to-day life. Music was used in many kinds of social contexts: possibly religious, possibly recreational - much like we use music today in many kinds of settings." ...

Professor Chris Stringer, a human origins researcher at the Natural History Museum in London comments: "These flutes provide yet more evidence of the sophistication of the people that lived at that time and the probable behavioural and cognitive gulf between them and Neanderthals. I think the occurrence of these flutes and animal and human figurines about 40,000 years ago implies that the traditions that produced them must go back even further in the evolutionary history of modern humans - perhaps even into Africa more than 50,000 years ago. (06/25/09)