I am still looking through the IDEA data

I wanted to see if any states have shown a drop in 3-5 year old case numbers and rates.

I found four.

Hawaii, Iowa, Louisiana and Vermont.

The declines are modest, but noticeable, and the first ever decline in actual numbers that has ever been reported, as far as I can tell.

These four states have little in common and a from 4 completely different regions. The only trait they share is a relatively modest population rate – I don’t know if that matters or not.

Of course there might be other explanations (budget cuts, migration etc) but it is interesting to see, coming on top of the drop in total IDEA rates and S/L disorders nationwide at the same time. This could mean nothing, or it could be the beginning of a larger decline. I need to read up on recent IDEA changes in these states, but with all the early intervention, CDC ads and “greater awareness” we keep hearing about, it is hard to imagine that the ascertainment rates would start to go down now. But I could be wrong!

By the way, Hawaii’s 3-5 year old numbers declined for two consecutive years, from 33 cases per 10,000 in 2003 to 29 cases per 10,000 in 2005, a drop of 12.1%!

There are at least another 6 states where the case rate stayed the same between 2004 and 2005 (also for the first time ever) or increased by just 1 case per 10,000, after many years of steady significant increases.

So, we now have at least ten states where the rate of autism among 3-5 year olds had either declined or flattened out by late 2005 – and that was a full year ago.

I wonder what it looks like now?

Comments welcomed, even from the skeptics!

I will send more detailed slide soon. I am still pulling together 2002 and 2001 data, for context

DK