FYI

For U.S. citizens: deadline to submit comment for the U.S. Strategic
Plan is today.

Pat Neuman

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: npat1@...
To: comments@...
Date: Sat, 18 Jan 2003 08:20:33 -0600
Subject: Comments on the Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science
Program Draft

E-mail to: comments@... on 1/18/2003 AM

Comments on the Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program
Draft
January 18, 2003

I. Background Information
------------------------------------
Patrick J. Neuman
Organization:
NOAA
National Weather Service (NWS)
North Central River Forecast Center (NWS_NCRFC)
Note: My comments on the Strategic Plan are my own,
and independent from my employment (NWS_NCRFC).
Chanhassen, MN 55317
home e-mail: npat1@...
Area of Expertise: Hydrology_ Snow, Ice, Runoff
II. Specific Comments on Chapter 2:
-----------------------------------------------
1st comment: Chap 2 Sec # 3 - add to beginning of third paragraph:

All dewpoint and relative humidity data from historical records
should be made available in digital format for modeling and analysis.
Preliminary data indicates that dewpoints have increased 2 to 4
degrees F from 1997 to 2002 in 15 Midwest states.

Patrick J. Neuman, NWS_NCRFC ,comments my own..not agency.

2nd comment: Chap 2 Sec # 3 under Research Needs, add 3 bullets.

o Improve climate modeling by better modeling of feedbacks associated
with the hydrologic cycle including evaporation, transpiration,
and irrigation.

o Improve climate modeling by accounting for latent heat energy
released from condensation of water vapor on snow and ice, which
increases melt rates of snow and ice.

o Improve climate understanding by developing models to simulate
the conditions that occurred during the Cenozoic geologic era, focusing
on the Late Paleocene Thermal Maximum (LPTM) of 55 million years
ago. Evidence exists that the LPTM was a period of rapid global warming
that resulted in the widespread extinctions.

Account for the following statements and reference material in
climate modeling:

" A period of global warming, called the Late Paleocene Thermal
Maximum (LPTM) occurred around 55 million years ago and lasted
about 100,000 years. Current theory has linked this to a vast release
of frozen methane from beneath the sea floor, which led to the earth
warming as a result of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
The vast release of frozen methane was preceded by climate warming
from the emissions of greenhouse gases by heavy volcanic and flood
basalt episodes.
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20011212methane.html

"ten million years later (55 million years ago), a warm spell led to
significant global warming, with Palm trees in Alaska and crocodiles
in the Arctic."
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/beyond.html

"In the late Paleocene temperatures started to rise, which caused
change in the vegetation."

"Increasingly warm conditions at the start of the Eocene caused the
extinction of some prominent species of the prior epoch."

" The forests that had housed numerous primate relatives were replaced
with denser, often tropical, forests. Species either adapted to the new

climate and environments or died out. The pleisiadapiform species that
thrived during most of the epoch dwindled and left only a handful of
species in the Eocene" (The Smithsonian's Human Origins Program).
http://www.mnh.si.edu/anthro/humanorigins/faq/gt/cenozoic/paleocene.htm

"The Late Paleocene Thermal Maximum is relevant because it is the
most abrupt warming event ever documented."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/horizon/sept98/sea.htm

"The striking correspondence between the quantities of carbon introduced
without man's influence 55Ma (million years) ago and those now being put
into the atmosphere by us, would alone justify this Geological Society
meeting."
"A 25-27 March 2003 three day international meeting on the geological
aspects of coping with climate change, will be held at the Burlington
House, London."
http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/template.cfm?name=LovellOpEd

Further study of the "Paleontology of the Theodore Roosevelt National
Park"
may unlock important information on the LPTM.
http://www.state.nd.us/ndfossils/education/brochure/brostart.html

Patrick J. Neuman, NWS_NCRFC, comments my own..not agency.

II. Specific Comments on Chapter 3:
Climate Quality Observations, Monitoring, and Data Management
Comment: Chap 3 Sec # 2 - under Research Needs, please, add.

o Temperature data by itself is inadequate in monitoring changes in
climate.
Changes in enthalpy (temperature, humidity, phase change - latent
heat exchanges) are very important. It can be misleading to look only
at temperature measurements without considering changes in
humidity (dewpoints). Near surface humidity is very important in
determining the rate of snowmelt, and ice thaw due to the
latent heat exchange from the condensation of water vapor on cold
surfaces.

Patrick J. Neuman, NWS_NCRFC, 2 bullets
All comments are my own..not representative of the agency that I work
for.

end


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