Published THursday, June 30, 2005, in the San Francisco Chronicle

BART's SFO extension falls short of hopes
Competition from cheaper Baby Bullet trains could be hurting ridership
on Peninsula line

By Dave Murphy

Two years after the biggest expansion in BART history, ridership on
the Peninsula is so far below projections that service has been
reduced, and some commuters are finding that Caltrain's Baby Bullets
are not only less expensive, but faster. BART's Web site shows that
the five stations from Colma south all rank in the bottom 10 in
ridership among the transit system's 43 stations during the quarter
ending in March. Even San Francisco International Airport, considered
a destination for passengers from throughout the system, drew fewer
riders than the station in Richmond did.

BART and SamTrans officials say ridership has increased steadily since
two years ago this month, when BART opened its $1.5 billion, 8.8-mile
extension, comprising stations at the airport, Millbrae, San Bruno and
South San Francisco. But they concede that projections made before
the system opened were wildly optimistic. [BATN: The technical term
is "fraudulent".]

The Millbrae station was expected to draw the most riders, an
estimated 15,900 per weekday in July 2003, its first full month. It
has never reached even half of that.

BART's 2003-2004 budget, written before the four stations opened,
estimated their average weekday ridership at 49,000. The 2005-2006
budget estimates ridership at 28,000.

"Yeah, it's been increasing a little bit, but it's nowhere near what
has been promised," said Margaret Okuzumi, the executive director of
BayRail Alliance <http://www.bayrailalliance.org>, a citizens transit
group that particularly supports Caltrain. "It's just really
unfortunate that SamTrans is kind of stuck now."

Because San Mateo County is not part of the three-county BART
district, the San Mateo County Transit District agreed to pay the
operating costs for the stations from Colma south (the Colma station
opened in 1996). BART officials expected the extension to be
profitable in five years, after which BART and SamTrans would start
sharing profits.

But the BART runs were losing so much money -- BART leaders said
SamTrans owed them $11 million in operating costs -- that the agencies
agreed last year to send all Millbrae trains through the airport.
That cut costs by consolidating the two previously separate routes,
but it added close to 5 minutes each way to the Millbrae commute.

Still, SamTrans expects to pay BART $10 million in the 2006 fiscal
year and has proposed raising fares and closing the San Bruno and
South San Francisco stations on weekends. That proposal is still
under discussion.

BART also has financial troubles. The agency has projected a $53
million deficit for fiscal year 2006, which begins Friday. BART cut
that projection to $24 million after cutting 115 positions (43 of
which are currently filled), raising fares and establishing parking
charges at the 10 busiest stations.

BART's two largest unions set a strike deadline of 12:01a.m. Wednesday
if they cannot agree on a new contract with the transit district's
managers.

Ironically, one reason the SFO/Millbrae extension is struggling could
be competition from Caltrain, which SamTrans also helps to finance. A
year ago, Caltrain began running Baby Bullet trains between San Jose
and San Francisco, making far fewer stops along the way. Since then,
Caltrain weekday ridership is up more than 12 percent.

But that's a healthy trend for the two rail systems rather than a
discouraging one, said Mark Simon, special assistant to SamTrans CEO
Michael Scanlon.

"They complement one another," he said. "They give people more
options to get out of their car."

He said the only reason people are disappointed with BART ridership is
those old projections, which were made at the height of the economic
boom. Ridership at the stations from Colma south is up 8.4 percent
from the first quarter of 2004.

[BATN: A lie. The ridership projections for the January 1995 DEIR
were made in the early 1990s, long before "the height of the economic
boom", or before anybody had dreamed of the dot-com bubble. See the
executive summary, complete with 60,700 daily riders(!!) projected for
a 1998 opening date, at
<http://www.plsinfo.org/healthysmc/30/description_alternatives.html#s-3>
The project's June 1996 FEIS continued to "project" (nudge nudge, wink
wink) 68,600 daily _new_ transit trips (not forced transfers from
discontinued bus or Caltrain service) in 2012.]

"Any other system, if it was sustaining annual growth of more than 8
percent, that would be hugely successful," Simon said.

Still, because of the Baby Bullets and because all Millbrae BART
trains go through SFO, Caltrain riders now can get to many areas of
downtown San Francisco slightly faster and for less money by staying
on the train instead of switching to BART in Millbrae. Many BART
projections have assumed that lots of Caltrain riders would switch in
Millbrae, but it isn't happening.

Although BART would take him closer to his job at Third and Howard
streets in San Francisco, San Mateo resident Jeff Saxton is one of
those Caltrain riders who isn't about to switch. His main reason: The
Bay Area Rapid Transit system isn't rapid enough.

"You go all the way up by Colma and circle around," Saxton said. "It
takes way longer. The train's faster. It's cleaner. It's more
reliable."

BART statistics show that 10,660 people exited the four new stations
on a typical weekday during the first quarter of 2005, meaning that
the stations probably had about 21,000 riders in or out. Meanwhile,
ridership at the Colma station has dropped in half since the extension
opened, from 6,362 people exiting to 3,142.

BART spokesman Linton Johnson said his agency has tried to promote
Peninsula ridership on several occasions, including sending out more
than 120,000 tickets worth $15 apiece to Peninsula residents in May
2004, encouraging them to try the service. Another promotional effort
started last month, advertising the airport service through posters on
BART trains and at SFO.

Although it's too early to tell, there are signs that the combination
of Baby Bullets and BART's Millbrae route through SFO could hurt BART.
Millbrae ridership had increased each quarter through September 2004
but has been slightly down the past two quarters. The Millbrae trains
started going through SFO last Sept. 13.

Caltrain will nearly double its Baby Bullets starting in August, and
its other trains will make fewer stops, allowing for faster commutes
to San Francisco and San Jose. It also will raise fares starting
Friday, but the ride to San Francisco will still be slightly less
expensive than it is on BART, and Caltrain offers bigger discounts for
regular commuters. Taking BART one-way from Millbrae to any downtown
station costs $3.55; people boarding Caltrain at any station from
Millbrae through Redwood City pay $3 -- increasing to $3.50 starting
Friday.

The leader of the Bay Area Council, which advocates a strong Bay Area
economy, criticized BART fares, which are among the highest in the
country.

"The answer to BART's woes can no longer be higher fares," said
council president and CEO Jim Wunderman. "BART fares are already
among the highest in the nation on a per-mile basis. According to a
2004 study of BART riders, 78 percent choose to ride BART, but could
find other means to get to their destination. Our region's air
quality, our environment and our roadways -- already the second most
congested in the United States -- cannot afford for these riders not
to choose BART."

BART depends on fares for about 60 percent of its revenues, so it
doesn't get nearly the subsidies that many regional bus lines and
Caltrain do, Johnson said. So its fares have to be higher.

Surcharges because San Mateo County is not part of the BART district
make Peninsula fares even costlier. A one-way trip of barely 2 miles
between Colma and South San Francisco costs $2.25. In San Francisco,
a ride between the Balboa Park and Embarcadero stations -- about three
times as far -- costs $1.30.

[BATN: Meanwhile a 14 mile ride betwen Dublin and Bayfair costs $1.25
thanks to BART's deeply regressive, inefficiency-rewarding and
anti-urban fare structure.]

BART has one inherent advantage over driving for San Francisco workers
who live in the East Bay: They save $3 on Bay Bridge tolls. There is
no similar savings for Peninsula residents. People driving from
Millbrae into the city also rarely face the kind of traffic that East
Bay commuters do.

When the extension opened, BART and SamTrans also agreed to charge $2
for parking at Peninsula stations, which further discouraged riders.
That charge was eventually dropped at all stations except Daly City
and Colma.

As government officials consider extending BART farther down the
Peninsula, the BayRail Alliance's Okuzumi is concerned that Santa
Clara County will accept the same sorts of overly optimistic
projections that San Mateo County did.

"How much has this extension improved transit in this county?" she
said. "Unfortunately, not so much."