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Hi Everyone! Election Day is fast
approaching (12 days!), which means lots of work and fun for hardcore
political junkies like me. This is really the biggest mass email
I send--every two years I compile a comprehensive Election Night
Helper (attached) which is intended to help you digest the results as
they come in by knowing when the polls close in each state and what
the key races are in each. This time I've added state
legislatures that are in play (important for the 2011 redistricting)
and some of my own predictions, as well as governors and congressional
seats--all in the most user-friendly format I could devise. The
top also includes links to several helpful objective resources to help
you follow on your own whatever interests you specifically between now
and Election Day; a lot can still happen in 2 weeks so these races can
be moving targets (Rep. Michelle Bachmann's crazy comments last week
have just put her MN-6 seat in jeopardy). I hope this is really
helpful, and I encourage you to reproduce it and spread it widely.
If you have trouble with the Word format, or would prefer a PDF, let
me know. Ditto if you think there are any big races or ballot
issues I've omitted. I haven't finished putting major ballot
issues in, but I thought it was time to get this out already. If
you want version 2 with them added, let me know.
At this point, I'm not ready to meaningfully predict the presidential popular vote (52-45?), the overall turnout, or the House of Representatives (251-271 Democrats? Maybe the most since 1993-94 or earlier). I do think, at the moment, that Democrats will end up with 59-60 Senate seats--the most any party has had since 1979-80--and that Obama will win something like 350-375 electoral college votes (Clinton won 370 in 1992 and 379 in 1996). On top of all the Kerry 2004 states, I think he will gain CO, FL, IA, NM, NV, OH, and VA (which would total 338). IN, MO, NC, ND, and WV are all possibilities.
Assuming Obama wins, the networks will offer you some facts about him as president-elect right after they declare him the winner. Here are some they may include:
*America's first African-American/biracial president (duh)
*First African-American/biracial person to lead a majority white nation
*First Democrat to win 50% of the popular vote since 1964 (LBJ)
*First senator elected president since 1960 (JFK)
*First Northern Democrat to be president since 1960
*First Midwestern president since Gerald Ford (MI)
*First Midwestern president elected since 1948 (Truman-MO)
*Voter turnout is likely to be the highest in over 40 years--young, new and black voters will be key.
*4th youngest president (47; after Bill Clinton at 46, John F. Kennedy at 43, and Teddy Roosevelt at 42)
*First Democrat to win NC since 1976, and/or IN, ND, and/or VA since 1964.
If you like to play with the Electoral College map, this is a good site: http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/
You can follow my predictions at http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/list/1f90e3dafccb2000fc1720062157e2ad/
including this week's:
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/12647/
Enjoy and Happy Election Day!
--
Jon Morgan
Seattle, WA
AIM/Skype: JonSM99
http://my.barackobama.com/page/dashboard/public/CGCxS
Take back Paul Wellstone's Senate seat: http://www.alfranken.com/
Seattle, WA
AIM/Skype: JonSM99
http://my.barackobama.com/page/dashboard/public/CGCxS
Take back Paul Wellstone's Senate seat: http://www.alfranken.com/
More light rail, commuter rail, and express
buses! http://www.masstransitnow.org/
"I don't
know...I guess I can't stand the idea of a world where a guy like you
can't get a date."
-Enid, in "Ghost
World"
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